Be Excellent To Each Other

It's back, and it's bigger than ever. It's...
The 2015 BEEX ELECTION SWEEPSTAKE.

£2 to enter, winner takes the lot. Entries in by 13:00 on 7 May 2015.

I'll update this thread with the entries as they come in, and chase people for payment when I can remember my Paypal details...

How it works

Simply say how many seats each of the following parties will have in the House of Commons.

Conservative:
Labour:
Liberal Democrat:
SNP:
UKIP:
Green:

Tie-break
In case of a tie, what will the turnout be (as %):

Bonus question, just for fun
On 27 May 2015, the day of the Queen's Speech, who will be the Prime Minister?

How I will score it

You will lose 1 point for each seat over or under the final result. So if the Whigs win 100 seats and you bid 105, your Whiggish score is -5. If the Know-Nothings get 4 seats and you bid 2, your score is -2. Your total score in this example would be -7.

The person with the highest score at the end wins the jackpot. In the event of a tie, the person closest to the final turnout figure wins. If that's tied, we will work through the individual party returns starting with the largest party. If there is no winner by then, I will cry. Just like I will on 8 May.

Candidates

Elephantbanjognome

Conservative: 281
Labour: 266
Liberal Democrat: 26
SNP: 52
UKIP: 3
Green: 1

Turnout: 69%

On the 27th: Cameron, on a minority.

Kern

Conservative: 272
Labour: 269
Liberal Democrat: 21
SNP: 49
UKIP: 2
Green: 1

Turnout: 72%

PM when Brenda comes a-callin': Cameron. Just.

Malc
Conservative: 269
Labour: 269
SNP: 49
Lib Dems: 31
UKIP: 3
Greens: 2

Turnout 75%

Pm = milliband

Malia
Conservative: 260
Labour: 279
LIb Dem: 25
SNP: 57
UKPI: 6
Green: 3

Pm: milliband

Turnout: 63.26%

Curio
Conservative: 280
Labour: 272
Liberal Democrat: 23
SNP: 51
UKIP: 2
Green: 1

Turnout: 69% (dude)
PM on 27 May: Miliband

Trooper
Conservative: 275
Labour: 255
SNP: 50
Lib Dems: 22
UKIP: 2
Greens: 1

Turnout 73%

Pm = Cameron

Mr Russ

Conservative: 303
Labour: 278
LIb Dem: 37
SNP: 6 26
UKIP: 1
Green: 0

PM: Cameron

Turnout: 70.1%

Cavey

Conservative: 326
Labour: 217
SNP: 50
Lib Dems: 13
UKIP: 3
Greens: 1

Turnout 63%

Pm = Cameron

Results

I shall do some thinking.

Conservative: 281
Labour: 266
Liberal Democrat: 26
SNP: 52
UKIP: 3
Green: 1

Turnout: 69%

On the 27th: Cameron, on a minority.

How many seats are available in total?

Doesn't look like Wales and NI are getting a look in! Nor the possibility of Gorgeous George retaining his seat or "other" or "independent"

I think it's 650.

The numbers don't need to add up as there will be ~20 'other' that's not worth trying to pin down.

If I include Plaid, I'd then feel obliged to list all the NI parties, then we'd get into arguments about whether Sinn Fein should count because they don't take up seats, and what about the Speaker and so on and so forth. Thought I'd stick to the main ones that have had most of the attention. Boy, it was easier last time round when we just used three parties.

You can enter other parties if you want, but I won't score them. Still, if there is a Raving Looney landslide, everyone will be in the -700 zone, which would be quite fun.

Yes, it's 650.

And, in the interests of an impartial judge:

Conservative: 272
Labour: 269
Liberal Democrat: 21
SNP: 49
UKIP: 2
Green: 1

Turnout: 72%

PM when Brenda comes a-callin': Cameron. Just.

Conservative: 269
Labour: 269
SNP: 49
Lib Dems: 31
UKIP: 3
Greens: 2

Turnout 75%

Pm = milliband

Conservative: 260
Labour: 279
LIb Dem: 25
SNP: 57
UKPI: 6
Green: 3

Pm: milliband

Turnout: 63.26%

Green 3?

I hope for that, I seriously doubt it though

Interesting guesses Mali, but your SNP numbers have Labour wiped out in Scotland, so to have them come in with 19 more than the Tories on top of that would be quite the feat. Every poll I've seen puts the Greens firmly at 1, and UKIP at 3 at best.

I really can't wait to see how all these chips eventually lie.

Top post updated and Paypal details PM'd to those already entered.

Conservative: 280
Labour: 272
Liberal Democrat: 23
SNP: 51
UKIP: 2
Green: 1

Turnout: 69% (dude)

Polls close in just over 24 hours.

Oh, Miliband for PM and all that.

Duly updated.
Any more?

Conservative: 275
Labour: 255
SNP: 50
Lib Dems: 22
UKIP: 2
Greens: 1

Turnout 73%

Pm = Cameron

Interesting amounts of people going for very high (historically) turnouts.

It's been rising steadily since a low of 59.4% in 2001. It was 71.4% in 1997 so estimates around that up from 65% in 2010 aren't that crazy.

Seems to be a lot more in the public eye this time around, and the result is widely believed to be very tight, which should drag out a few more voters.
Plus the uplift from the recent Scottish referendum and the high turnout from that.

I just wanted to quote Bill & Ted.

Any more?

Looks like I'm only going to win £8

It's the taking part that matters.

I've extended the deadline to 13:00 today in case anyone else wants to join in.

Conservative: 303
Labour: 278
LIb Dem: 37
SNP: 6
UKIP: 1
Green: 0

PM: Cameron

Turnout: 70.1%

Goodness.

If that's a typo I'm happy to amend his entry before the cut-off point. Likewise, if anyone has cold feet, they can tweak their numbers before 13:00.

Anyone else?

Can you imagine the conspiracy theories if that happened?

I wonder if there might be a marginal shift back to Labour in Scotland on the day, much like the old Tory shift in England.

The Guardian is reporting that police have warned officials to watch out for conspiracy theorists trying to prove rigging.

What a waste of time: the lizards decided the outcome months ago. They have yet to decide on Eurovision, however.

Make my SNP 26 please.

Done.

Well I'm certainly not in it for the money. It's the joy of exchanging political discussion with my contemporaries

Conservative: 326
Labour: 217
SNP: 50
Lib Dems: 13
UKIP: 3
Greens: 1

Turnout 63%

Pm = Cameron

I like a man with optimism ;D

A man can dream!


(Seriously though, I still think when push comes to shove, your average "kipper" will be swayed by the carrot of a referendum and the stick that is the doomsday scenario of Milipede propped up by the SNP, an organisation whose core aim is the destruction of the UK. I could be wrong, but I hope not...... Major confounded all the polls in '92 after all)

According to the 'Election Forecast' poll here: http://www.may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/ if the results come in as anticipated my score would be -4.

I have a feeling that in the event of a second election, manufactured or otherwise, we'd see some form of Tory /ukip non compete ticket in marginals in exchange for a may 16 referendum. Which is another reason why if Cameron is PM in minority that the left will be reluctant to force a confidence vote.

This might be a good shout!

I should be a political analyst; one dopey old bastard confounds the combined might of the media and polling companies combined?

To be fair I did have my doubts though. Fundamentally, I thought the spectre of the SNP rampant and no longer restricting themselves to Scottish matters in parliament would galvanise the rest of the UK to neuter them, which they have.

You can fish your own beer from the paddling pool now, mate

If I do win, I'll ask Kern to put the money towards buying drinks for the BBQ

Indeed. I'm not sure what was worse for labour, the snp essentially becoming a controlling factor (and so scaring away the non-scots), or having a charismaless toss-rag happy to stab his own brother in the back as their figurehead.

Oh well.

I have to agree with you.

just get him to sellotape pound coins to the bottom of cans, that'll get people fishing them out for you!

Hang on, you are not getting out of the bbq like that!

I'll be there if that's okay with everyone.
When is it by the way?