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 Post subject: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 10:29 
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Joined: 12th Apr, 2008
Posts: 17970
Location: Oxfordshire
It's back, and it's bigger than ever. It's...
The 2015 BEEX ELECTION SWEEPSTAKE.

£2 to enter, winner takes the lot. Entries in by 13:00 on 7 May 2015.

I'll update this thread with the entries as they come in, and chase people for payment when I can remember my Paypal details...

How it works

Simply say how many seats each of the following parties will have in the House of Commons.

Conservative:
Labour:
Liberal Democrat:
SNP:
UKIP:
Green:

Tie-break
In case of a tie, what will the turnout be (as %):

Bonus question, just for fun
On 27 May 2015, the day of the Queen's Speech, who will be the Prime Minister?

How I will score it

You will lose 1 point for each seat over or under the final result. So if the Whigs win 100 seats and you bid 105, your Whiggish score is -5. If the Know-Nothings get 4 seats and you bid 2, your score is -2. Your total score in this example would be -7.

The person with the highest score at the end wins the jackpot. In the event of a tie, the person closest to the final turnout figure wins. If that's tied, we will work through the individual party returns starting with the largest party. If there is no winner by then, I will cry. Just like I will on 8 May.

Candidates

Elephantbanjognome

Conservative: 281
Labour: 266
Liberal Democrat: 26
SNP: 52
UKIP: 3
Green: 1

Turnout: 69%

On the 27th: Cameron, on a minority.

Kern

Conservative: 272
Labour: 269
Liberal Democrat: 21
SNP: 49
UKIP: 2
Green: 1

Turnout: 72%

PM when Brenda comes a-callin': Cameron. Just.

Malc
Conservative: 269
Labour: 269
SNP: 49
Lib Dems: 31
UKIP: 3
Greens: 2

Turnout 75%

Pm = milliband

Malia
Conservative: 260
Labour: 279
LIb Dem: 25
SNP: 57
UKPI: 6
Green: 3

Pm: milliband

Turnout: 63.26%

Curio
Conservative: 280
Labour: 272
Liberal Democrat: 23
SNP: 51
UKIP: 2
Green: 1

Turnout: 69% (dude)
PM on 27 May: Miliband

Trooper
Conservative: 275
Labour: 255
SNP: 50
Lib Dems: 22
UKIP: 2
Greens: 1

Turnout 73%

Pm = Cameron

Mr Russ

Conservative: 303
Labour: 278
LIb Dem: 37
SNP: 6 26
UKIP: 1
Green: 0

PM: Cameron

Turnout: 70.1%

Cavey

Conservative: 326
Labour: 217
SNP: 50
Lib Dems: 13
UKIP: 3
Greens: 1

Turnout 63%

Pm = Cameron

Results
ZOMG Spoiler! Click here to view!
1st Cavey -33
2nd Trooper -100
3rd Elephantbanjognome -108
4th Curio -112
5th Kern -117
6th Mr Russ -134
7th Malia -143
8th Malc -168


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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 10:47 
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Gogmagog

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 48911
Location: Cheshire
I shall do some thinking.

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 10:48 
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Legendary Boogeyman

Joined: 22nd Dec, 2010
Posts: 8175
Conservative: 281
Labour: 266
Liberal Democrat: 26
SNP: 52
UKIP: 3
Green: 1

Turnout: 69%

On the 27th: Cameron, on a minority.

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 12:57 
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Yes

Joined: 6th Apr, 2008
Posts: 12337
How many seats are available in total?

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 13:10 
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Isn't that lovely?

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 11168
Location: Devon
Doesn't look like Wales and NI are getting a look in! Nor the possibility of Gorgeous George retaining his seat or "other" or "independent"

:)

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 13:11 
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Isn't that lovely?

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 11168
Location: Devon
Mr Russell wrote:
How many seats are available in total?


I think it's 650.

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 13:15 
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Legendary Boogeyman

Joined: 22nd Dec, 2010
Posts: 8175
The numbers don't need to add up as there will be ~20 'other' that's not worth trying to pin down.

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Pretty much everyone agrees with Gnomes, really, it's just some are too right on to admit it. :)


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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 13:31 
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Location: Oxfordshire
If I include Plaid, I'd then feel obliged to list all the NI parties, then we'd get into arguments about whether Sinn Fein should count because they don't take up seats, and what about the Speaker and so on and so forth. Thought I'd stick to the main ones that have had most of the attention. Boy, it was easier last time round when we just used three parties.

You can enter other parties if you want, but I won't score them. Still, if there is a Raving Looney landslide, everyone will be in the -700 zone, which would be quite fun.


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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 14:19 
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Malc wrote:
Mr Russell wrote:
How many seats are available in total?


I think it's 650.


Yes, it's 650.


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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 20:19 
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Location: Oxfordshire
And, in the interests of an impartial judge:

Conservative: 272
Labour: 269
Liberal Democrat: 21
SNP: 49
UKIP: 2
Green: 1

Turnout: 72%

PM when Brenda comes a-callin': Cameron. Just.


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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 22:29 
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Isn't that lovely?

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 11168
Location: Devon
Conservative: 269
Labour: 269
SNP: 49
Lib Dems: 31
UKIP: 3
Greens: 2

Turnout 75%

Pm = milliband

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 22:42 
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Gogmagog

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 48911
Location: Cheshire
Conservative: 260
Labour: 279
LIb Dem: 25
SNP: 57
UKPI: 6
Green: 3

Pm: milliband

Turnout: 63.26%

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 22:51 
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Isn't that lovely?

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 11168
Location: Devon
Green 3?

I hope for that, I seriously doubt it though

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 23:01 
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Legendary Boogeyman

Joined: 22nd Dec, 2010
Posts: 8175
Interesting guesses Mali, but your SNP numbers have Labour wiped out in Scotland, so to have them come in with 19 more than the Tories on top of that would be quite the feat. Every poll I've seen puts the Greens firmly at 1, and UKIP at 3 at best.

I really can't wait to see how all these chips eventually lie.

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Mon May 04, 2015 10:47 
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Location: Oxfordshire
Top post updated and Paypal details PM'd to those already entered.


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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Mon May 04, 2015 11:02 
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Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 27354
Location: Kidbrooke
Conservative: 280
Labour: 272
Liberal Democrat: 23
SNP: 51
UKIP: 2
Green: 1

Turnout: 69% (dude)

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2015 6:10 
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Location: Oxfordshire
Polls close in just over 24 hours.


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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2015 12:27 
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Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 27354
Location: Kidbrooke
Oh, Miliband for PM and all that.

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2015 13:17 
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Location: Oxfordshire
Duly updated.
Any more?


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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2015 13:22 
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ugvm'er at heart...

Joined: 4th Mar, 2010
Posts: 22396
Conservative: 275
Labour: 255
SNP: 50
Lib Dems: 22
UKIP: 2
Greens: 1

Turnout 73%

Pm = Cameron


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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2015 13:45 
SupaMod
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Interesting amounts of people going for very high (historically) turnouts.

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2015 13:50 
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Legendary Boogeyman

Joined: 22nd Dec, 2010
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It's been rising steadily since a low of 59.4% in 2001. It was 71.4% in 1997 so estimates around that up from 65% in 2010 aren't that crazy.

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Pretty much everyone agrees with Gnomes, really, it's just some are too right on to admit it. :)


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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2015 13:52 
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ugvm'er at heart...

Joined: 4th Mar, 2010
Posts: 22396
Cras wrote:
Interesting amounts of people going for very high (historically) turnouts.


Seems to be a lot more in the public eye this time around, and the result is widely believed to be very tight, which should drag out a few more voters.
Plus the uplift from the recent Scottish referendum and the high turnout from that.


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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2015 18:36 
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Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 27354
Location: Kidbrooke
I just wanted to quote Bill & Ted.

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2015 20:37 
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Location: Oxfordshire
Any more?


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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2015 23:28 
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Legendary Boogeyman

Joined: 22nd Dec, 2010
Posts: 8175
Looks like I'm only going to win £8 :D

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Pretty much everyone agrees with Gnomes, really, it's just some are too right on to admit it. :)


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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2015 6:21 
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ElephantBanjoGnome wrote:
Looks like I'm only going to win £8 :D


It's the taking part that matters.

I've extended the deadline to 13:00 today in case anyone else wants to join in.


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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2015 8:30 
Awesome
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Yes

Joined: 6th Apr, 2008
Posts: 12337
Conservative: 303
Labour: 278
LIb Dem: 37
SNP: 6
UKIP: 1
Green: 0

PM: Cameron

Turnout: 70.1%

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2015 9:23 
SupaMod
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Commander-in-Cheese

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
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Mr Russell wrote:
SNP: 6


Goodness.

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2015 9:27 
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If that's a typo I'm happy to amend his entry before the cut-off point. Likewise, if anyone has cold feet, they can tweak their numbers before 13:00.

Anyone else?


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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2015 9:42 
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Sleepyhead

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 27354
Location: Kidbrooke
Cras wrote:
Mr Russell wrote:
SNP: 6


Goodness.


Can you imagine the conspiracy theories if that happened?

I wonder if there might be a marginal shift back to Labour in Scotland on the day, much like the old Tory shift in England.

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2015 9:45 
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Curiosity wrote:

Can you imagine the conspiracy theories if that happened?


The Guardian is reporting that police have warned officials to watch out for conspiracy theorists trying to prove rigging.

What a waste of time: the lizards decided the outcome months ago. They have yet to decide on Eurovision, however.


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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2015 10:38 
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Yes

Joined: 6th Apr, 2008
Posts: 12337
Make my SNP 26 please.

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2015 11:24 
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Mr Russell wrote:
Make my SNP 26 please.


Done.


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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2015 11:35 
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Legendary Boogeyman

Joined: 22nd Dec, 2010
Posts: 8175
Kern wrote:
It's the taking part that matters.

Well I'm certainly not in it for the money. It's the joy of exchanging political discussion with my contemporaries ;)

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2015 12:21 
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Joined: 23rd Nov, 2008
Posts: 9521
Location: The Golden Country
Conservative: 326
Labour: 217
SNP: 50
Lib Dems: 13
UKIP: 3
Greens: 1

Turnout 63%

Pm = Cameron


:)

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2015 12:23 
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Legendary Boogeyman

Joined: 22nd Dec, 2010
Posts: 8175
I like a man with optimism ;D

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Pretty much everyone agrees with Gnomes, really, it's just some are too right on to admit it. :)


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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2015 12:26 
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ElephantBanjoGnome wrote:
I like a man with optimism ;D


:D

A man can dream!


(Seriously though, I still think when push comes to shove, your average "kipper" will be swayed by the carrot of a referendum and the stick that is the doomsday scenario of Milipede propped up by the SNP, an organisation whose core aim is the destruction of the UK. I could be wrong, but I hope not...... Major confounded all the polls in '92 after all)

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2015 12:31 
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Legendary Boogeyman

Joined: 22nd Dec, 2010
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According to the 'Election Forecast' poll here: http://www.may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/ if the results come in as anticipated my score would be -4.

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Pretty much everyone agrees with Gnomes, really, it's just some are too right on to admit it. :)


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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2015 20:10 
Filthy Junkie Bitch

Joined: 17th Dec, 2008
Posts: 8293
Cavey wrote:
ElephantBanjoGnome wrote:
I like a man with optimism ;D


:D

A man can dream!


(Seriously though, I still think when push comes to shove, your average "kipper" will be swayed by the carrot of a referendum and the stick that is the doomsday scenario of Milipede propped up by the SNP, an organisation whose core aim is the destruction of the UK. I could be wrong, but I hope not...... Major confounded all the polls in '92 after all)

I have a feeling that in the event of a second election, manufactured or otherwise, we'd see some form of Tory /ukip non compete ticket in marginals in exchange for a may 16 referendum. Which is another reason why if Cameron is PM in minority that the left will be reluctant to force a confidence vote.


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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 08, 2015 7:05 
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Gogmagog

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 48911
Location: Cheshire
Cavey wrote:
Conservative: 326
Labour: 217
SNP: 50
Lib Dems: 13
UKIP: 3
Greens: 1

Turnout 63%

Pm = Cameron


:)


This might be a good shout!

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 08, 2015 7:43 
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I should be a political analyst; one dopey old bastard confounds the combined might of the media and polling companies combined? :D

To be fair I did have my doubts though. Fundamentally, I thought the spectre of the SNP rampant and no longer restricting themselves to Scottish matters in parliament would galvanise the rest of the UK to neuter them, which they have. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 08, 2015 7:47 
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Gogmagog

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
Posts: 48911
Location: Cheshire
Cavey wrote:
I should be a political analyst; one dopey old bastard confounds the combined might of the media and polling companies combined? :D

To be fair I did have my doubts though. Fundamentally, I thought the spectre of the SNP rampant and no longer restricting themselves to Scottish matters in parliament would galvanise the rest of the UK to neuter them, which they have. :)


You can fish your own beer from the paddling pool now, mate :)

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 08, 2015 7:50 
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:'(

If I do win, I'll ask Kern to put the money towards buying drinks for the BBQ :)

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 08, 2015 8:14 
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Paws for thought

Joined: 27th Mar, 2008
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Cavey wrote:
To be fair I did have my doubts though. Fundamentally, I thought the spectre of the SNP rampant and no longer restricting themselves to Scottish matters in parliament would galvanise the rest of the UK to neuter them, which they have. :)

Indeed. I'm not sure what was worse for labour, the snp essentially becoming a controlling factor (and so scaring away the non-scots), or having a charismaless toss-rag happy to stab his own brother in the back as their figurehead.

Oh well.


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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 08, 2015 8:30 
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I have to agree with you. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 08, 2015 8:42 
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Ticket to Ride World Champion

Joined: 18th Apr, 2008
Posts: 11898
Cavey wrote:
:'(

If I do win, I'll ask Kern to put the money towards buying drinks for the BBQ :)

just get him to sellotape pound coins to the bottom of cans, that'll get people fishing them out for you! :D


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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 08, 2015 10:28 
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Gogmagog

Joined: 30th Mar, 2008
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Cavey wrote:
:'(

If I do win, I'll ask Kern to put the money towards buying drinks for the BBQ :)


Hang on, you are not getting out of the bbq like that!

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 08, 2015 10:46 
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MaliA wrote:
Cavey wrote:
:'(

If I do win, I'll ask Kern to put the money towards buying drinks for the BBQ :)


Hang on, you are not getting out of the bbq like that!


I'll be there if that's okay with everyone. :)
When is it by the way? :D

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 Post subject: Re: Election Sweepstake 2015
PostPosted: Fri May 08, 2015 10:52 
SupaMod
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Est. 1978

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Cavey wrote:
When is it by the way? :D

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=10383

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