Some quite interesting Scottish Independence poll trend data that I've not seen before:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independenceOf particular note I think, is the proposed "new" question wording of 2012 poll data, namely
'Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?'According to this site, the Yes vote has fallen from an already low base of 39% in Jan 2012 to a quite catastrophic 30% in October of this year, almost a one-quarter drop in as little as 10 months (and with the No vote at an imperious 58%, almost double), and not even allowing for the latest (November and December) 'EU Advicegate' and the EU Commission President's quite definitive, pointed (albeit supposedly generic, for reasons of diplomacy and protocol) advice. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yes vote crash yet even further to perhaps 25% or even 20%, post these enormous debacles (not to mention the performance of Wee Eck in general, what with his previously discussed Orwellian Tippex bottle parliamentary records antics and all the rest).
The SNP can count themselves very fortunate indeed that the vote is still two years off; were it tomorrow, they'd sink without trace off the back of their recent performance in this debate (and indeed in the Scots Parliament and media in general). Notwithstanding, clawing back a 20-point (minimum) swing in their favour, possibly even more than that if I'm right about the deleterious effect on forthcoming polls, is one hell of a big ask, even in that kind of timescale - surely unprecedented? No wonder Salmond and the rest didn't want the referendum anytime soon. Courage of convictions, eh...
I honestly think also that the rise of the Cybernats is causing gross harm to the Yes campaign in general. I don't have any problem with ordinary Scots independence supporters, far from it - but just as I have little time for those at the far, intolerant extremes of Conservatism, so it is also with the Nationalists. If I were a Scottish independence supporter, I'd be asking the Cybernats, with their IMO unpleasant, aggressive, intolerant image, to put a sock in it, big time.
In other news, it's amusing to note the latest Cybernat suggestion which seems to be that the whole threat to an independent Scotland's membership of the EU is somehow a "positive" for the Yes vote, that somehow your average Scots voter is anti-EU to the extent of being glad of the idea of being not only out of the UK, but the EU as well...? Yeah right, good luck with that one. Like I say, the next round of opinion polls will, I suspect, be both interesting and informative.
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Beware of gavia articulata oculos...
Dr Lave wrote:
Of course, he's normally wrong but
interestingly wrong