Be Excellent To Each Other

What a day we had.

And what a night.

Everyone remains alive.

[playerlist]
zaphod79
Gazchap
Goddess Jasmine
Saturnalian
Malc
Joans
TheFireFaerie
[/playerlist]

4 votes for action.

Day ends at midday Tuesday, or earlier.

Bobby only died last night, so if managed to give a dose of poison out (without orders from the deceased Don) then someone will be hit by it at the end of this day.

Assuming there's no more poisoners, that limits potential deaths from baddies to just one - no more ninja, no more serial killer.

So we just have to find the roleblocker(s) to win.

I've no idea who to go for. zaphod79 is a confirmed townie and I'm a townie. That leaves 5 others.

Who do we pick?

Right then, let's get this done.

We've got one, maybe two, Mafia to weed out for the win. We've got the numbers so I can't see how we can bodge this up.

Who wants to type words with their fingers and come up with some crazy theories or three?

Now, instantly I'm thinking "What the hell is going on here?" Cras was poisoned to death about an hour ago. To assume is to make an ass out of u and me.

What was Nickachu doing?! That was like lynch suicide... Although, turns out he didn't have a side, so I'm quite glad he's gone and not taking out random townies!!

So. Do we reckon there's no more deaths to come? I thought Craster was Bobby's end of next day hit? No? Which means there may not be another poisoner.

There's definitely at least one blocker left, though, as I got blocked last night! Not that it made any difference as there's nothing to block - seems a little weird given that all the power roles are gone, yes? Unless there's some hidden something that we don't know about?

God I hope there's no reappearances from the dead thread, or that in fact the ninja is just in hiding or something, and that's why he didn't care about getting lynched!

Sorry, in a continuing tradition of I thought the poison took effect the next day, i.e. it would be tomorrow - but of course, when in the night phase, the next day is the next phase... if that makes sense.

So yes, Craster was poisoned, which means there's likely to be no poisoners left and just a roleblocker.

Or there is a poisoner left and we are all doomed

I don't see why there was a push to get rid of the ninja - he had not targeted townies (that I saw) and some very weird reasoning going on in the last day saying that the claims ment craster was the ninja and nick the scientist !

We have time to sort stuff out - I'd like to know why people voted for nick - saturnalion at least said what he thought - everyone else seemed to be I'm voting for him because I don't believe the role claim ?

nickachu was saying things that seemed to heavily contradict things he'd said earlier in the game, and in some cases earlier in the day.

which I'm fairly sure we all said at the time...

That's just Nik though, isn't it? He's less cogent than me!



Mind you, I probably would have voted to lynch him in the end as he refused to help the town.

Okay so everyone is just saying "this" which doesn't really help

Read his comments back now with what you know (he is the ninja) and it just looks to me like someone getting confused over the killing order of things - can someone "in their own words please" tell me what he was doing that made you think he's a mafia or anti town

Yes, but we didn't know that at the time.

He was being confusing, and contradicting himself, and although professed to be pro-town wouldn't give any assurances, so as far as I was concerned even if he was the ninja he was bad news and only out for himself. Which turned out to be the case.

It's time to get real people. Now, you know me as a superb personal injury solicitor and awesome litigator. This means I specialise in risk and probability so I've devised a risk/probability simulator to assist us through these final stages.

It works as such:

Each time you vote for a Baddie you get +2
Each time you vote for a Goodie you get -2
Each time you abstain from voting for a Baddie you get -1
Each time you abstain from voting for a Goodie you get +1
If you vote for someone entirely different from the crowd you get 0.

So I've done a graph to illustrate the risk/probability of being Mafia or Town.

GET READY.

Now with names:

And here's the working out in case you doubt the positions.

What about those of us who simply weren't around to vote, or missed a vote due to it ending before we had a chance? How's your math adjusting for those scenarios?....

The maths never lie! Zaphod (a confirmed Goodie) must die!!!

I can't help but feel that was a waste of 30 minutes...

Good doodling, though. Most in depth. (Were you immensely bored?! )

And from your working your counting the ninja as a baddie which I don't think is confirmed ?

Right now we will have 1 or 2 mafia left - if 2 we are pretty much stuffed
If only one we just need to find that one and get rid of them

I'm pretty sure despite his numbers showing me to be bad that saturnalian is good (or if he is bad he's actually giving reasons why he is voting for people and why he does or does not trust them

Of the others I'm most sus of gaz - partly for the blanket 'I voted for nick cause he was doing bad things ' message earlier and the fact that his initial argument for voting for nick yesterday seems to be that he did not believe he was the ninja

Sorry - continued - gaz also then managed to get the killing order mixed up today (which was one of the reasons for voting for nick yesterday)

I'm also sus of tff but don't have any specific points on that right now - again the push for nick yesterday along with some very odd assumptions although that could just be a confused townie

Of the others I think gj is town as she said she was previously blocked

Not sure of malc or Joan's who have both been pretty quiet overall

I can perfectly understand why you're suss, although I'm just a very belmy townie.

If nik really did follow bobby when he said he did, and he didn't poison anyone, then there is another poisoner. Guess we'll know for sure at the end of the day (or not for sure if nobody dies).

Ok - so who should we be voting for then - gaz / Joan's / tff who would you vote for and why ?

Right then
Zaphod - confirmed goody.
Gazchap - too belmy to be mafia, although that might just be what he wants you to think.
Saturnalien - too much analysis to be mafia, although that etc...
Malc - dunno, but said something about allotments that meant he wanted to lynch nikachu.
Gj - no idea
Tff - also no idea.

No other comments ?

From your list I'd be ok voting for malc

I was trying to prove I was a townie by pointing out that I mentioned the phrase "inhabitant of town" I didn't realise that the roles were up in the rules thread, so I didn't actually prove anything. So it's a bit of a belm.

I am just an inhabitant of town. I am pretty clueless as to who to vote for though.

Malc

I do think the the belm thing by gazchap was deliberate, so that is where my gaze is heading.

[vote:gazchap]

Malc

I was also blocked...

Plus the only assumptions I think I've made are those relating to the rules (the delayed poison) in order to clear up other people's belms and in an attempt to figure out how many mafia we have left and are trying to wheedle out

Made my reasons to oust nick super clear! He was lying and showing no town-loyalty. Seems a pretty good reason not to want him around to me!

As for other people... I'm yet to draw any real conclusions, and there's lots of time for people to respond to FOSs / voting, so I'd like to wait to hear from them

Yes you were blocked but last night when the baddies have no need to block anyone as unless there are hidden roles there is no one else with a night action - calling attention to this (twice in as many posts today) looks like your using this as something to hide behind

I also don't think you were clear on why you voted for nick at the time and when asked today your answer was ; this ; which again I don't think makes things 'clear'

If only.

I said at the time it was because he was lying and wouldn't promise to be pro-town, I said because that's exactly what someone else said the next day, and I've repeated it again today. Exactly how much clarity and consistency do you want?... Seems like a rather poor effort on your part to point a FOS at me to deflect attention away from someone else (or yourself, but as a "confirmed" good guy that's admittedly unlikely)

I'd be happy to go with Gaz or Malc for belm reasons and as no one else really stands out right now, and haven't really spoken up!

Would be nice to hear from some others before end of day

Last day to make some headway people: 12 is the cut-off.

As there's been very little talk from the remaining players there's very little to actually go on. It seems to be that there were two opportunities to keep Town-Friendly players where there was a pile on of mixed Town and Baddie. Now there might be players that should have been more cautious and weren't but there could also have been Baddies lurking about.

The first was day 1 & 2 with the MaliA vote off. MaliA was virtually confirmed to be a goodie but received an unceremonious neck-tie for, of all things, talking. And being MaliA. Natch. Problem was he had a very important investigation role.

zaphod79 - Voted to kill.
Goddess Jasmine - Voted to kill.

Gazchap - No vote.
Malc - No vote.
Joans - No vote.
TheFireFaerie - No vote.
Me - No vote.

Day 4 was Ninjachu. Yes, it turned out that he was was unaffiliated but he had confirmed that he also had an important investigation role and had only been chopping the heads off baddies.

Goddess Jasmine - Voted to kill.
Gazchap - Voted to kill.
Malc - Voted to kill.
TheFireFaerie - Voted to kill.

zaphod79 - No vote.
Joans - No vote.
Me - No vote.

So what does that mean? Probably nothing but the only person on both lists is Goddess Jasmine.

Now this might not be the best way to look at who to vote for but I can't see any other way given an absence of actual text from people.

But, for fairness, let's have a look at some text shall we:

zaphod79 - Confirmed goodie.
Gazchap - He thinks that the Mafia have no actions now (Day 4) and there was need for Cras and his antidote (Day 4). Turned out Cras did need the antidote, he just didn't have it.
Goddess Jasmine - Claims to have been roleblocked. Was sticking up for Joans when I suggested she should be lynched for being quiet.
Malc - His voting is all over the place. Until Nik his votes were often completely different to the group voting.
Joans - Didn't vote for Zeppo. She was FOS'ing DavPaz (Day 3) who was a goodie. Didn't vote for Nik although she was questionning him a lot. I feel obliged to point out that not once has she voted for anyone. At all. Is this due to outside factors or something else?
TheFireFaerie - Claims to have been roleblocked. Claimed that Cras was the ninja and Nik the Mafia.

Anyway, that's your lot. If there are TWO Mafia left then one might expect one or more of the above to have supported another players comments at some point in time and the only person I can see who did that was GJ sticking up for Joans.

Now, I might be completely wrong of course (it's kinda mah ting to be wrong in previous games) but this is the way I was thinking about this earlier when I was trawling back over the days play.

Oh, and for completeness, this is just my way of approaching it in a Mr Dave-stylee logical way since I'm actually suspect about other players! Ah well...

If I could just interject - I didn't think there was a need for Cras and his antidote, I was more pointing out that with no Mafia poisoners left (which at the time was an assumption, but does seem correct now) then there was a benefit to Cras roleclaiming so that we can narrow down who the goodies are. It was just a shame Grim... popped it as he could have corroborated Cras's roleclaim and therefore given us two known goodies.

Apparently this ends midday on Tuesday - not today. Hopefully that will give people enough time to contribute.

Ok, so GazChap who do you think we should be focusing our efforts on? I've read your denial - fine - but where should we attribute blameworthiness?

I'd go for Joans personally, mainly because he's been extremely quiet and also because he hasn't voted for anyone.

I'm inclined to agree at this point. The no voting at all bothers me, as it could be a way to avoid alliance all together if called on about it. Especially when he argued so strongly for the Nick lynch but then didn't vote.

My only concern is that, the absence of any voting whatsoever might be due to lack of time rather than anything untoward. But there's always a comment each day so it could be someone weighing up who to hit/block.

Yes that's my point exactly. If there had been no posting as well as no voting I might have put it down to lack of time, but particularly the Nick lynch day there was a lot of posting throughout, and then no vote. Even if that was no time later, such an apparent argument against / encouragement to lynch should have warranted a vote during the commenting at some point.

Um, on day 1 I didn't vote for Malia (I voted for Mr Russell) but on day 2 I did vote for him. My voting is all over the place?

Mr Russell, Malia, Nic, Nic

That's hardly all over the place.

You're either reading the data badly or just trying to muddy stuff up.

I think it's the latter to be honest.

Malc

My bad. Yeah, I might have read that wrong.

Point clarified: on two days out of four you vote against the crowd.

Hey, if you want a go at an analysis, feel free. I ain't exactly a veteran at this.

To amend my earlier MaliA/Ninjachu analysis.



So with a possibility of two Mafia, I now have two names.

so day 1 against the crowd I spared the detective considered a good role

day 3 against the crowd I voted for the ninja considered by most to be a maverick at best.

Following the crowd isn't always a good thing!

Malc

Then the following day you decide to kill him?

MaliA came out as the detective within 5 minutes of the end of Day 1. After he'd role claimed you still voted for him, right? Why was that then?

Because like most people I thought he was talking crap, the thing with zaphod seemed convincing enough.

Before that I wasn't sure.

Malc

I might just wait for Zaphod to point out the flaws in my argument as he's good with the logic stuff and often has some insights.

I'd be happy voting for Malc this go around.

Or Joans to be honest.

Er, I didn't stick up for Joans, I asked why you wanted to vote for him/her.

I'd happily see him/her swing.

Right, I have to leave for work soon so will [vote:Joans] just because he hasn't voted for anyone.