Be Excellent To Each Other

Thing is, the US Democratic Party isn't really a "centre-right" party, even thought admittedly it's presidents almost always act right-wing by European standards. The party itself is basically a catch-all party for everyone that isn't a Republican: It had people in it who are essentially social democrats, through to groups like the Blue Dog Democrats who are well to the right of European conservatives. It's borderline ideologically unclassifiable. Best comparison would be if you put everyone in Beex into one political party - we'd all have ideals in common, but so many differences in beliefs as well.

Keep an eye on Ohio - Romney *has* to win there, pretty much, in order to get to 271. Obama can lose NC, FL, WI, and VA (and other swing states he won in 2008 like CO) as long as he holds Ohio. Polling there is variable, but the majority of polls post the first debate seem to have Obama from anything from a 2-6 point lead. And early voting has begun there.

I didn't realise Ohio was quite that important. Judging by the figures, Ohio would make an Obama win more likely, but is it enough? Ohio and Florida, on the other hand, and Romney's more likely done for.

Presenting the pessimistic map. Even if Romney sweeps the South, takes NV and CO *and* knocks off WI, Obama comes through with a tiny edge if Ohio is held. I'm expecting Obama to take VA and WI, so I don't think it'll be this bad, but the election is likely to be decided via the voters of Ohio. Which, funnily enough, was what happened in 2004...

Also, remember that there is no second prize. You either win the presidency, or you don't. So you need the broadest base possible if you want a shot at winning.

You think Indiana will stay blue? I'd say that's a swing state that could easily go red. If the pessimistic map becomes a possibility, Obama should announce he's moving the White House to Florida and grab the 29 votes there that could swing the entire thing. (Lots of old people in Florida, too—Obama needs to hammer home that Romney and Ryan want to kill social medical care for pensioners.)

So *really* pessimistic gives you 247/291—and then…
Obama takes Ohio: 265/273
Obama takes Florida: 276/262 \o/
Obama takes Ohio and Florida: 294/244 \o/

Argh - Mixed up Iowa and Indiana. Which does complicate things. But - I don't see Obama losing Wisconsin, if that helps

Today's XKCD is very clever:

http://xkcd.com/1122/

BINDER FULL OF WOMEN!!!

Shows how out of touch he is with the common man. Most of us get by with just a small black book.

The yank in the office brought in her postal vote form today. The write-in space at the bottom of the list of presidential candidates (charmingly under the category of 'federal offices') pleased me. We also had a chat about who she should pick for the county's agricultural control board, though we couldn't find a transcript of the candidates' debate.

I hear Roscoe H. Nailgood's got the right ideas when it comes to rutabagas, although I still think ol' Hank Grutterson is the better man on beets.

Man, world geography knowledge in the US is worse than I thought. 'is an attack on Israel an attack on the US?'. Neither of them got it right. These are high level politicians! Someone get them an atlas!

Romney said something like "Irans route to the sea is via Syria".

Apart from that pesky Gulf thing Mitt.

...and Iran's well-known ally Iraq being between them.

I've just had a chat about this with [American Company], and they think it's going to be really close.

I hope Obama wins, because he does cool stuff like Google Hangouts and stuff on Reddit.

The only things that matter are the swing states, particularly thr close ones like Ohio, New Hampshire and Iowa. If Obama holds those three he's fine, and he's ahead in all of them... but only by a tiny amount (within the margin of error).

He can afford to lose Iowa and NH and still take the presidency (by one vote), but if he loses Ohio it's all over.

Yeah, he said the same - it's all about Ohio.

Crazy US election process.

Theoretically, Obama can take NV+IA+NH+CO and still pull through with 272 votes without Ohio. But that's something of a harder path (although he has decent polling in NV/CO and seems to be doing quite well with early voting in IA. New Hampshire, on the other hand, is currently flooded with polls that show leads for both candidates).

Whilst I still think Obama will win, I fear the Republicans will still hold the House and continue to play silly buggers rather than working with the administration to solve America's woes.

Yes, the Dems will chip off a little on the GOP hold of the House, but there's no way they're going to take that back - perhaps in 2014. However, even with that deadlock, it'll mean the cementing of ObamaCare and possibly up to two more Justices on the Supreme Court - and being a pragmatic sort over here, that seems like a half-decent second term.

I'm tired of them not doing it right so I'm sending MrsA over to sort things out. They had better behave.

Looks like it could be somewhat close. I think Romney will edge it, though, due to Obama having had a go but not got stuff done in the eyes of the franchised.

I think Obama will edge it, due to the majority of people being reasonable when you get down to it.

I think Obama will edge it, due to all the polls saying he will win.

Pretty much the only way I can see him losing is if the Republicans manage to disenfranchise enough people with the voter registration thing they have brought in purely to reduce the Democratic vote (which they have been surprisingly candid about).

The state of the east coast has the potential to be a major factor. Jersey, NY, etc are typically strong blue states, and with so many people still fixing their homes and without power, there's going to be a pretty low turnout, I'm guessing.

They're talking about allowing email voting for affected residents. How the hell they're going to manage that without opening themselves up to massive potential voting fraud, I've got no clue.

I've not looked at it in much detail but is there not also a problem with Romney's family owning one of the companies which supply the voting machines (and so much for all those questions of journalistic integrity if thats not a conflict of interest I dont know what is)

Quick link :

http://www.presstv.com/detail/2012/11/0 ... d-machine/

\
Hi! Remember me?

Twice.

Most commentators are calling it for Obama, and I hope that happens. From the looks of polling data, if he secures Ohio, he's probably sorted, or if he can hold Florida (unlikely), the same. Still, plenty of room for surprises—Oregon of all states just swung from a cert to probable Obama on HuffPo's model. If Obama can hold Ohio, #nkamdnjannaajenje" class="postlink">I reckon it'll end up around 281/257. If not, #nkamdnjannabjenje" class="postlink">bleurgh.

I have read so much Nate Silver this past month. I love him.

I'm just worried about Husted trying every trick in the book to screw it over.

When Romney wins it'll be LOLZ on twitter about how democracy is great until the people choose the wrong person, the Grauniad will have a shitfit for the next four years about privately owned wealth, and the US will continue with Obama's extra judiciak assassinations.

When Obama wins and nothing happens, twitter will be LOLZ about the senate, the grauniad will have a shitfit , and the US will continue with Obama's extra judicial assassinations.

I'm really hoping for Romney so I can tut tut about stuff.

After staying up until fuckknowswhat o'clock to watch Obama win in 2008, and Bush win in 2000 and 2004, this time round I've come to the conclusion that I really don't give a shit and I don't understand why anyone else does outside of the US. Yeah yeah, big country, affects everyone, blah blah, but we don't take this interest in elections in India, China, Japan, Germany or even the fucking EU.

Ukraine.

That's only because they deposed and arrested Princess Fucking Leia, dude.

Question for Kern which I can't be bothered to look up the answer to but I suspect he'll enjoy explaining anyway - why did FDR serve 4 terms? (I just got round to reading that comic strip)

Because you don't change horses midstream.

Also, there was only ever a tradition of presidents standing down after two terms. It was only in the early 1950s that the constitution was amended to prevent anyone standing for a third term (and then the Republicans realised that in so doing they'd have to get rid of the ever-popular Ike).

FDR built a remarkable coalition, taking in unionised labour in the great industrial cities to poor racist southern aristocrats in the south, and was able to keep it together. He was also the only Democrat popular enough in 1940 to challenge any Republican.

Things were very different in 1944, for obvious World War 2 related reasons.

Ah ok, I hadn't realised the constitution had been tinkered with, I thought they'd always been limited to two terms. Carry on!

Other than this country, I have more friends in the States than anywhere else. I find the country fascinating, and basically don't want it run by the kind of people who will charge you with first degree murder and execute you for taking the morning after pill. Unless you are rich.

Your baffling international popularity aside, the vast majority of people don't have that sort of a connection with the US.

Where does the majority of the music, movies, television, fashion and culture imported into this country come from?

America.

It's only sensible to take an interest in the producer of most of my favourite things.

They make a lot of Pork also, shouldn't Craster be in on this?

I wasn't aware that HBO's output was affected by the candidates' views on the defecit.

America is why Brits have spent 30 years overcooking the shit out of pork, the bastards.

Nope, but it will be when Crazy Christian Fundamentalists get in and ban cuss words, rock music, dancing, boobies and not being hateful towards gays people.

And pork.

Scary Christians won't ban pork as that's what Jews and Muslims do. They'll just ensure it's cooked in such a way as to cause no feelings of happiness or joy. Food should exist to provide sustenance only, enjoying food is for atheists and pagans.

DAMN THEIR EYES.

It's OK, you'll still be able to enjoy your boiled pork with unseasoned boiled potatoes and maybe some creamed corn.