Be Excellent To Each Other

It's Tornado Season 2012. The season officially starts in March, but has already gotten off to a start with the February 29th mini-outbreak that claimed 13 lives. It's not unusual for there to be tornadoes in February, even January, but the strength of the February 29th storm raised a few eyebrows. It's been a largely mild winter in the US thus far, but a belt of severe cold weather sweeping over the North of the US has met unusually warm moist air coming up from the Gulf, and fueled by instability caused by a fast moving front coming in from New Mexico and California has created some strong tornado making weather.

This morning America awoke to a potent mix of weather fronts mingling with powerful wind sheer. For some time, the dewpoints (essentially moisture in the air - part of the fuel mix for tornadic systems) remained only a little above average, but those have now begun ascending. There was hope as well that cloud cover would mean that the low lying belt of air wouldn't heat so much, and so you wouldn't have the pressure cooker problem that results in tornadoes where storms are capped by cool air, compressing the warm air which fights to climb as the cool air fights to sink. (Eventually, this causes such instability that supercells boil up (usually in the afternoon) and when strong corkscrewing wind sheer passes through them, this elevator of cold-warm air begins rotating fast, producing tornadoes.)

Yesterday it looked to be only a modest system developing, but still one for concern and a degree more severe than the Feb. 29th episode. Unfortunately, the system seems to have kicked off unusually early in the morning, producing isolated tornadoes as early as ten o'clock their time. Now it's early afternoon and the states of Indianna, Tennessee, Alabama (again), Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky are being afflicted by severe tornado producing thunderstorms, with Alabama, Kentucy, Indiana and Tennessee in for the worst. It's also reported that Virginia might be in for it too, and there are concerns for Nashville which is in the path of a huge supercell.

As of approaching 4:00PM ET there have been nineteen tornado warnings, with a half dozen reports of tornadoes on the ground. Fortunately so far there have been no reported fatalities, and for some felons in a correctional facility it was actually good news when a fence was ripped from its foundations causing jailbreak opportunities. The strange nature of tornado outbreaks means that there can be an almighty shedload of big tornadoes out there end up doing very little damage due to the very limited area they affect. The converse of this is in an incident like Joplin's, when only one tornado fell out of the sky but was purely positioned to do so much damage. The warnings are out there for the next five hours at least, however, and though this is no where near the titanic event of April 23rd last year, where there were over 230 tornadoes over three days, it's still causing some worry in that America may be looking at another unusually active tornado system. Cue tedious climate change debate.

With the supercells still tracking it looks like Alabama is going to be in the clear - for once, but the Western states are under the gun.

Damn, looks like I typed too soon on the not-much-damage front. Latest Wunderground update apparently has the towns of Maryville and Henryville 'wiped out', with a double wedge tornado near Cincinnatti. Bit worrying since wedge tornadoes are wider than they are tall, so two of them at once is pretty bad.

Thanks Pete. Well-written and informative as ever.

It's just gone 16:15 here, just outside Shiloh, Tennessee. Today was very hot -felt almost like summer. After looking round a relic show in Corinth, Mississippi, we decided to stop by the house, pick up the dog, and go for a stroll around the Shiloh battlefield before the expected storms hit.

As we were strolling around the dog seemed very tense, and it suddenly became very dark. We raced back to the car and bombed it down back to the house. We briefly saw something funnel-shaped in the distance, but were going too fast and there were too many trees to clearly make it out.

Back at the house the sky was bright and clear on one side, but dark with mysterious grey clouds and occasional bolts of lightning on the other. The wind, which had been very light just twenty minutes earlier, was picking up again. We went inside, and watched the mysterious grey clouds blow over. Going outside, the wind had dropped and it was noticeably cooler.

The radar we were looking at online suggests there are more fronts coming this way tonight. As with every dwelling in this area, be it a sprawling brick mansion, a comfortable home, or a redneck trailer, there is a shelter out the back. I don't think we'll be needing to spend the night in it, but I'll be relieved once the storms pass.

got

Your mum's an unstable mass of heavy pressure.

Um, not to worry you Kern but Tennessee Middle and East has a TORCON of 9/10, which means a very high probability of a tornado within 50 miles of you. West Tennesse has 4/10, which means low but possible. North Mississippi has 7/10 which means strong possibility. You're probably around the mark. If you have a weather radio, tune in to the nearest channel and be ready for tornado warnings - there MAY be one in effect for your area. What county are you in?

Here's the warning's list: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/national.p ... pe=tornado

After 9:00 your time you should be able to rest easier. It being suddenly cooler means that the front has probably just passed over you, but that doesn't mean you're in the clear. Part of me is weirdly jealous of you.

Still, sounds like there's three towns now that have been badly hit. There's some hysterical rumours on Wunderground.com from a couple of posters, so it's hard sorting wheat from chaff.

McNairy County, TN. The next front has just hit us and there's a thunderstorm outside.
Don't think I'll be going to bed until the all-clear

Get behind that stonewall!

Not looking good for West Liberty, KY. Doppler radar shows a complete monster bearing down on that place, with a hook and debris ball that's almost cartoonishly oversized. Meanwhile baseball sized hail approaching Pittsburgh, PA, already over the Chatanooga area. Baseball sized hail is sufficient to kill if you're outside without protection.

This outbreak still isn't anywhere near the April 2011 outbreak, but it does seem to be making records for the sheer speed the storms are belting along at. The Wilmore KY tornado that sped through an hour to two ago whipped along at 85mph, that outspeeds the previous record holder - the Tri-State Tornado of 1925 at 73mph. Still, with some luck the next line of tornadoes will be missing the big population centres, in the same way Nashville got lucky. As the storms pass through the kids who weren't sent home late morning are being released from school now, though the shopping malls are apparently shutting down and evacuating across the affected states.

Woah, the sound of golf-ball sized hail hitting the TV news studio in Chatanooga is pretty incredible. Possible tornado with funnel cloud sightings on the way to the city, but they can't see anything because it's pitch black outside and the hail is obscuring everything. Not good. Still, might pass harmlessly over - at any rate should miss downtown, the suburbs of Brainerd to the East are somewhat less safe.

And West Liberty has another possible tornado headed towards it, making that three in a week. At least the heat will be dropping now, so these systems should only have a few more hours tops. Normally they'd be falling apart by now, but these are powerful systems, now piling across into North Georgia.

And now to bed I think. Keep me posted, Kern.

Well, our area's no longer getting a tornado warning, though we have had plenty of heavy storms this evening.

Other places weren't so lucky. The news reports have been talking about heavy devastation in Henryville and Maryville, Indiana. I've just checked the map and I was just south of there, in Louisville, Kentucky, last week.

Wow! This clip of large hail was recorded at Shiloh around 16:00 on Friday, about half an hour after we left the battlefield.

http://iwitness.weather.com/_Hail-on-Sh ... 48597.html

Not the most dramatic, but odd to think that had we lingered there we would have been caught up in it. We're about 8 miles away but are on a ridge so didn't get any hail.

And everything was calm this morning, as if nothing had happened.

It's easy to forgetten, sometimes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azV5bC2br-Q



Watch from 1:00 in.

I remember that one, Metalangel!

One hit Dallas area today, but fortunately no one is known to have been seriously hurt. However, incredible footage of a tornado tossing 18 wheeler trucks literally two hundred feet into the air as it passes over a truck depot.



Jesus! Nowt like that has ever been captured before on film. I advise going full screen for it.

Playing EvE a few weeks ago, the radio DJ was describing the warning sirens from nearby towns and then baseball sized hail hitting his car and breaking the window. It was captivating stuff, many listeners urges him to seek shelter and it was a worrying time when he suddenly went off air (due to a blackout). When he came back on with more stories of what was happening it was just amazing to listen to.

He was in Columbus Ohio, by the way.

Hmm, not looking good for Kansas, Oklahoma and Nebraska today. We could be looking at a severe outbreak today, though I doubt it'll be near the levels of the April outbreak last year. Could chalk up 50+ tornadoes though. Dewpoints are high and if they raise a little more further North all that heat and humidity's going to meet the wind-sheer tossed mass of cold air rolling down from Canada and cause an explosion of supercells. Timing is everything though. The worst combination being hot-still air in the morning and the cold unstable air hitting in the late afternoon. Oklahoma City's got an 8 on the Torcon scale, which means that tornadoes are highly probable within 40 miles of a given point. Six's are moderate chance and four's a low chance.

Saturday April 14
IA west night - 8
IA central - 5
IA central, northeast night - 4 to 5
KS central - 8
KS east night - 8
MN southwest - 4
MN south, east-central night - 5
MO northwest night - 6
NE central, east - 8
OK west, north-central (except panhandle) - 7
OK central, northeast night - 5
SD southeast night - 6
TX northwest near Wichita Falls - 7
TX central night, west of I-35 - 4
WI west-central night - 4
Other areas - less than 2

Just got up to check the big outbreak.

Jesus.

Well, so far, good news. Big tornadoes all over, but they've been skipping between towns missing everyone all night. Salina (population 11,000) got a jammy escape when a massive tornado bore down on it but lifted up to pass over it leaving it unscathed, before descending to churn harmlessly through more farmland.

However.

They've revised the track for the biggest one out there tonight - a long tracking three quarter mile to one mile wide max-strength EF5 tornado is headed towards the metropolitan area of Wichita. "Large, violent and extremely destructive," according to National Weather Service. "Catastrophic." And on a bulls-eye track to a city with a population of 385,000. If it hits it'll be on it in an hour. Around eleven o'clock at night. You won't be able to see it coming except for the power flashes.

Correction, this is a twin tornado now. Damn.

The city may get lucky. It's been a lucky night so far. The tornado may lift or weaken. There may be a recycle phase which will reduce its strength significantly, or it might suddenly track right. But this storm is tracked to keep its full power churning up until two in the morning over there and it has been steady so far. This may be a horribly historic tornado.

Apparently tornado sirens sounding in Wichita now.

Meanwhile another EF4/5 is ploughing elsewhere in Kansas, fortunately in a low density area. Though I don't like the looks for the little village of Hudson. Seems to have JUST missed Greensburg though, which is nice, since it got smacked by an EF5 and was 90% destroyed in 2007.

45 minutes until Wichita.

Tornado now a half mile wide according to radar. That's not the general wind field area, that's the funnel size if you could see it. Looks like its fluctuating between half and three-quarters. I read a report of 1 3/4 but I don't believe it.

Shit-fucks. National Weather Service has released a somewhat harshly worded warning for the people of Wichita.



Hudson is 'gone' apparently.

Hospital hit in Creston, Iowa. No word on injuries, but they said the word 'triage'.

In next couple of minutes Clearwater, population 2,481, will be hit.

Incredibly, storm chasers are still after these things. In the middle of the night. They're reporting the size via lightning flashes.

One of the news networks has gone offline, they're heading to the shelter. Big concert with some American woman in a Astrodome type thing, they've stopped the show and everyone is being kept inside as its safer than being out.

Tornado still strong, maybe a little stronger. Now on the outskirts of the city.

And now the weather channel I'm watching is moving everyone who isn't essential personel to the shelter, leaving just a cameraman and the anchors, who have a fast route to the basement. They assure me.

Power flashes on the South side of Wichita, as debris is flung into the lines.

...

Shit, it's now in Wichita. Moving at 40mph, wedge tornado, F3 and above. Probably an F4. This is the worst thing that could possibly happen. It's just passed over Haysville, population 10,000.

One slight ray of good news, that hospital triage reported no significant injuries.

...

Tornado tracking right a bit. It'll miss downtown. Good news. But it's going straight over the Eastern third of the city along the turnpike, through residential districts. Tracking towards the surburb of Andover.

Hmm. Best go to bed soon.

And they've just run to the basement I think.

And they're back. Not sure what they did there. Looked a bit panicked.

And the tornado has now left the city, bound for Andover and El Dorado.

And now I'm off to bed.

* Makes a contrived Glen Campbell joke *