Be Excellent To Each Other

Right then. With Game III all done and dusted, who wants to play Game IV, VampireScum (v0.2) in which I will be your host?

Same signup rules as before. 10 slots guaranteed to the first 10 people who want to play and weren't in Game III; another 10 slots drawn by lottery (if necessary) for anyone else. If you put your name down please tell if you played in Game III or not so I know which list to put you on.

Shall we say a Monday start?

ME!

I didn't play in game three.

I might advise a Monday-week start though, so we keep games apart a bit. Just to keep it all fresh, like.

I'll be in the ballot please.

Yo!

Edit : Not G3.

Plkease.! Me em! emmem¬!

Not in game 3, were I.

Having played 3 in a row I should really sit out because they destroy my productivity (even after I get killed).
I'll give other people a chance to jump in and see how long I can resist the urge.

Aye - in Game III.

Sorry

I was thinking that, perhaps. If people make their feelings known we'll go with the majority.

Ahem.

Thanks to the dead zone, it's just as time consuming on the side lines now.

It's worse, I was refreshing two threads all the time instead of one. I might just go on holiday for the week.

I did it right, sir! Can I has extra star points in the game now?

Me! Please.

I'd like to play.

I did play in the last MS game though, so I won't cry too much if my application is unsuccessful.

I would like to play please. I played in game 3.

Malc

I wouldn't mind playing. I wasn't in game 3. Although I was in the two which preceded it.

I will only play if you're struggling for numbers, otherwise count me out. I'll be too busy next month trying to survive on grass cuttings from the garden. Also if I do play everyone is going to murder me 10 minutes after the game starts.

10? optimist.

Not true in this game I think. Statistically, logically, you'd spawn a Townie and if I were playing Vamps I'd want you converted, not dead. Same goes for other strong players like Curio and Craster and vegetables.

I'd recommend leaving it a week to give your rules a really good think over and to give everyone else a mental rest. Doesn't bother me though, I'll happily follow the new game whenever it starts

Played Game Three. I'll play if possible, preferably after a week off. In fact, if it's next week then actually I'll skip one as I have loads of work to do.

ALSO

Bobbyaro want to sign up, but is not near a computer for a few days. He has not played before so stick him on the guaranteed list.

I'd like to go into the ballot please.

I'm a strong player? Aces. Count me into the auto-ins if there still are any, and the ballot otherwise.

Logical fallacy, previous games do not affect this one. Com had as much chance of being interesting in G4 as he did in 1 and 2, as I do, as someone's who's never played does.

I'm not talking about roles -- I'm talking about player strength.

?

By the same token, of course, strong players are better at hiding their alignment, so it's riskier to attempt to recruit them if you think they're town.

"More likely to be a vanilla townie than any other role"

I'm not sure it's really very meaningful to discuss this kind of thing in a vacuum- obviously your recruitment choice would depend on what happens in-game to at least some extent. And the meta, thinking about it. You wouldn't pick the best player in the world ever under certain circumstances.

Ah. I'd still lynch him on day 1 just to be safe.

The probability is calculated depending on the scope of what you're considering.

For example, in a game with 6 townie roles, the probability of me being a townie is a simple 6/20 (or 3/10). But you're considering a single game only. If you consider the probability of me being a townie over three games at once then it becomes 3/10 * 3/10 * 3/10 = 9/1000 or about 1/111.

I think that's what The Gaywood is trying to say

Its like, imagine you flipped a coin 9 times and got tails every time. The odds against that are very high, but the probably of getting tails again is very very unlikely. If you ignore all past trends, then of course, the odds of getting tails is still 1/2.

So yeah, I'm a townie, don't lynch me.

No, no, no. If you flip nine tails in a row, it's still 50/50 on the next toss whether it'll be tails again.

I just said that myp. However the probability of getting 10 tails in a row is much, much less than 1/2. 1/2^10, in fact.

Yes, but if first nine times have already happened and we know the outcomes of them, this is meaningless- the probability of getting a ten tails at that point in time is either 1/2 or 0. The fact that it's vastly more likely to be 0 because the previous nine times are vastly unlikely to all be tails is not relevant to this. We're not saying "what are the odds of CG being scum over three games" when we don't know whether you were or not in the first two, which would need to be the case for this to be valid.

The chance of the coin being tails is 1 in 2 no matter how far back you go. Past events are irrelevant. A coin toss is an independent event. You could toss a coin a million times, and have a million tails, but the next one is still going to be a 1 in 2 chance. (assuming the coin isn't bent). The coin doesn't look back and say 'better do a head this time'

Casinos love this type of thinking. 'The ball has landed on black five times in a row, it's gotta come out on red this time. Law of Average!' Whoops, black again, and you've lost all your money. The wheel doesn't care about what it's done in the past.

Compare to trying to draw a heart from a deck of cards. If you replace the card and shuffle each time, you always have a 1 in 4 chance of drawing a heart. It's an independent event.

If you do it without replacing cards after you've drawn them, then for the first card, you have a 1 in 4 chance. If you draw a non-heart card, then you have a 13 in 51 chance for the second. If you draw a second non-heart card, it becomes a 13 in 50 chance. If you draw 20 non-heart cards in a row, the next draw will yield a probability of 13 in 32 chance of getting a heart. This is not an independent event.

What if you're tossing the coins on a plane that's on a treadmill?

*shoots self in head*

I was in Game 3, but off the buzz of wringing spectacular, er, drawitude from the jaws of defeat I'd love to give this a go if possible.

I'd like to play. I wasn't in game three (although I did lock the thread a few times).

So far I have 9 in the "ballot" group:
Plissken
Mr Russ
Rodafowa
Curiosity
Dudley
Zardoz
myoptika
Spinglo Sponglo!

and 7 in the "definitely playing" group
The Rev Owen
Dimrill
Mr Chris
Mr Dave
Bobbyaro
vegetables
Grim...

And it looks like we'll be having a week off and starting 7th July.

Me please. I was in Game 3.

When is the ballot being carried out?

Um.. I wasn't in game 3, I should be in the definitely group.

The other drawback about perceived 'stronger' players is that they often get killed early on, 'just in case'.

See Sinister Agent being recruited to the cult as he has proved to be perceptive, and killed on the same night by the Mafia because he's got a track record of good deductive skills.

I both agree and disagree with you. I've already said as an independant event the outcome of a coin toss is always 1/2, but I'm not talking about an independant event, I'm talking about 10 flips, not 1 flip. When you consider 10 flips at once then the probability of 10 tails is very very low, though not impossible. I'm correct by virtue of the mathematics alone!

1/2 AND 1/2 = 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4, and so on. In other words, there's a 1 in 4 chance of you flipping a coin twice and it being tails both times. Same goes for mafiascum really, but only when you consider all three games at once. In other words, I could play 1000 games and never be a vanilla townie, but the odds would be incredibly against such an outcome, no?

Except we ARE talking about an independant event since I brought it up when gaywood (appeared to say) you were more likely to be a townie this game because of the previous ones.

Please take me out of the ballot for this one. Potentially I'm not going to be near a computer for half the game.

Ill get involved please. early start good, im off work 1st july - 5th july.

Thanks

ARRRARAGH! *RAGE EXPLODE*

[vote:comicalgnomes]

A ballot slot for me, please.