Be Excellent To Each Other

Let's make this election interesting. There will be 650 seats in the next House of Commons, but how will they be divided up between the parties? Use your psephological skills to accurately predict the result, and win our fantastic (and fictional) prizes! Remember, a party needs 326 seats to get a majority of 1. And yes, I know Thirsk and Malton has a note from its mum and is sitting election day out, but that shouldn't affect things too much, unless it's a dead heat.

This sweepstake will only concentrate on Labour, the Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrats, although you can add other parties if you want to. Once you've read the runes for them correctly, also make a stab at guessing what the turnout will be (in case of a tiebreak). Post your predictions below, and I'll add them to this thread from time to time. Closing date is 07:00 on Thursday 6 May - when the polls open! Good luck, and remember: it's not who votes that counts, it's who counts the votes!


Actual results (excluding Thirsk and Malton)

Labour: 258
Conservative: 306
Liberal Democrat: 57
Others: 28

Turnout: 65%

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/

Kern:
Labour: 191
Conservative: 345
Liberal Democrat: 70
Turnout: 68%

Pod:
Labour: 202
Conservative: 310
Liberal Democrat: 108
BNP: 2
Others: 28
Turnout: 45%


Myoptikakakaka:
Conservative: 285
Labour: 222
Liberal Democrats: 114
Other: 29
Turnout: 52%

Con/Lib pact in hung parliament.

MaliA
Labour 220
Conservative 306 WINNER
Liberal Democrat 75

Turnout 38%

Squirt
Hung Parliament with:

Labour: 225
Conservative: 325
Liberal Democrat: 70
Others: 30

Significant improvement for the Tories , but not quite enough to form an overall majority. They might be able to scrape a government together without the Lib Dems though, with some of the DUP and independents

Superdupergill
Labour:198
Conservative:310
Lib Dem:92

Turnout: 74%

The Vision
Labour = 212
Conservative = 319
Lib Dem = 69 NEAREST

Turn out = 49%

Trooper
Labour = 199
Conservative = 280
Lib Dem = 131
Others = 40

Turn out = 70%

Mr Kissyfur
Labour = 261 NEAREST
Conservative = 271
Lib Dem = 89
Others = 29

Turn out = 73%

Grim...
Labour = 169
Conservative = 288
Lib Dem = 149
Others = 44

Turn out = 65% WINNER!

Mimi
Labour = 222
Conservative = 274
Lib Dem = 109

Turn out = 53%

Bobbyaro
Labour = 202
Conservative = 292
Lib Dem = 97
Other = 35
Turn out = 58%

The Rev Owen
Labour = 214
Conservative = 308
Lib Dem = 99
Other = 29

Turn out = 61%

ApplePieOfDestiny
Conservative 270
Labour 272
Lib Dem 79
Other 29

Turnout 72.4%

Captain Caveman
Labour: 207
Conservative: 329
Liberal Democrat: 87
Other: 27

Turnout: 67%

Nervous Pete
Labour: 212
Conservative 306 WINNER
Liberals: 108
Other Gobshites: 24

Turn out: 71%

ChinnyHill10
"I vote for a Tory majority of 6."

Kalmar
Labour: 281
Conservative: 260
Liberal Democrat: 80
Others: 29

= Hung parliament but Davey tries to steal it, Bush JR style.

Turnout: 74%

Crowd-sourced Poll of Polls Mean of the figures above
Labour: 219
Conservative: 297
Liberal Democrat: 96
Turnout: 62%

Sinister Agent
Tories about 250
Labour about 200
Lib Dems about 150
Others about 50.

Turnout = 72%

650

Kern:
Labour: 202
Conservative: 310
Liberal Democrat: 108
BNP: 2
Others: 28
Turnout: 45%

Conservative: 285
Labour: 222
Liberal Democrats: 114
Other: 29
Turnout: 52%

Con/Lib pact in hung parliament.

Labour 220
Conservative 306
Liberal Democrat 75

Turnout 38%

What was the breakdown for the last election, for reference? I want to get my swingometer on.

2005 result:

646 seats
Labour: 355
Conservative: 198
Liberal Democrat: 62

(from the site listed above)

Cheers, both. The turnout was in the 60s wasnt it?

2005, I think.

61.4% according to http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm

People here are so well informed, it pleases me. That or they know where to find the info.

I choose to believe this is due to personal experience and engagement with the issues rather than Google.

I've been spending a lot of time on the Parliament website of late.

Betfair are giving ( in decimal odds ) 1.76 for No Overall Majority, 2.48 for a Conservative and 42 (!) for a Labour one.

I'm going to go for

Hung Parliament with:

Labour: 225
Conservative: 325
Liberal Democrat: 70
Others: 30

Significant improvement for the Tories , but not quite enough to form an overall majority. They might be able to scrape a government together without the Lib Dems though, with some of the DUP and independents.

Edit : Adding Turnout 65.2%

Labour:198
Conservative:310
Lib Dem:92

Turnout: 74%

With a total stab in the dark... I'm going with.

Labour = 212
Conservative = 319
Lib Dem = 69

Turn out = 49%

Did I win?

Labour = 199
Conservative = 280
Lib Dem = 131
Others = 40

Turn out = 70%

I don't think it'll be quite that high, but I think you might be surprised; this election will have a higher turnout than any others this century so far, I reckon.

So, anyone else want in for a chance to win a lapdance from Jacqui Smith our top fictional prizes?

Labour = 261
Conservative = 271
Lib Dem = 89
Others = 29

Turn out = 73%

Both of them?

Anyway, I'd best have a go.
Labour = 169
Conservative = 288
Lib Dem = 149
Others = 44

Turn out = 65%

Labour = 222
Conservative = 274
Lib Dem = 109

Turn out = 53%

This election is making me feel depressed, by the way.

Labour = 202
Conservative = 292
Lib Dem = 97
Other = 35
Turn out = 58%

Labour = 214
Conservative = 308
Lib Dem = 99
Other = 29

Turn out = 61%

A little bit of 'wisdom of the crowds' based on the guesses received so far:

Labour: 211
Conservative: 301
Liberal Democrat: 98

Turnout: 59%

Conservative 270
Labour 272
Lib Dem 79
Other 29

Turnout 62.4%

Riles, it's possibly not entirely in the spirit of the game to just use the BBC Election-o-meter's figures for the current poll of polls.

My go

Labour: 207
Conservative: 329
Liberal Democrat: 87
Other: 27

Turnout: 67%

Outright Conservative majority.

I'm outraged. I did not.

I knocked 0.5 off the libdems

Okay , here's my late, agonised effort -

Labour: 212
Conservative: 306
Liberals: 108
Other Gobshites: 24

Turn out: 71%

Hoping Libs make a stronger showing than that, but I'm a semi-realist.

I vote for a Tory majority of 6.

I'm voting against that.

281
260
80
29

= Hung parliament but Davey tries to steal it, Bush JR style.

74%

Tories about 250
Labour about 200
Lib Dems about 150
Others about 50.

Turnout = 72%

I'm not too sure about the numbers, but I had 72 or 73 in mind as the turnout all along, honest guv.

Lib dems 150!? Pass the bottle

Er... 4' 6".

Who's won, then?

Not me.

Not all the seats are in yet.

Actual results - 649 constituencies out of 650:*

Labour: 258

Mr Kissyfur had 261

Conservative: 306

MaliA & NervousPete had it spot on

Liberal Democrat: 57

The Vision had 69

Turnout: 65%
Grim... had it spot on

Congrats to all.

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/

* When Thirsk and Malton declare later in the month, I'll adjust these scores, but it's unlikely to affect things

Ok, so I got my figures a bit wrong, but don't I get a special prize for the (increasingly likely) outcome?

If the election were PR, I think I would have won.

No, really:







This is of even less consolation than you may think.

Yes. Lord Mandelson will be over for the lapdance in a minute.

I'll get round to scoring everyone soon - I reckon losing one point for each seat out should work.

Hi5!

Ok, for each person's guesses I've calculated how close they were for to the actual result for the three main parties. If you got it spot on, you score 0, and for every seat you are out you lose one point. I then added up the totals for each person. So if you got the results exactly, your score would be 0, and if you were off by one for each party you would score -3.

Final Scores:

18th. Sinister Agent -207
17th. Grim… -199
16th. Trooper -159
15th. Mimi -120
14th. Kern -119
13th. Myoptika -114
12th. Pod -111
11th. Bobbyaro -110
10th. Captain Caveman -104
9th. Superdupergill -99
8th. Nervouspete -97
7th. Kalmar -92
6th. Rev Owen -88
5th Applepieofdestiny -72
4th. The Vision -71
3rd. Mr Kissyfur -70
2nd Squirt -65
1st. MaliA -56


(Feel free to disagree with my arithmetic)

Turnout bonus ball

Using the same methodology for the turnout (excluding Squirt who didn't provide a figure) we get this:

17th MaliA -27
16th Pod -20
15th The Vision -16
14th Myoptika -13
13th Mimi -12
12th Superdupergill -9
11th Kalmar -9
10th Mr Kissyfur -8
9th Sinister Agent -7
8th Bobbyaro -7
7th Rev Owen -7
6th Applepieofdestiny -7
5th Nervouspete -6
4th Trooper -5
3rd Kern -3
2nd Captain caveman -2
1st Grim… 0

Congratulations to MaliA for the main game, and to Grim... for the bonus round: better luck next time to everyone else.

And if someone can work out a better way of scoring which will make me win, feel free to bash the numbers!

I had 260! It's not fair!

(edit: drat, I see you took my vote order as Labour first, highest. That was Conservative. Oops)

Winner!

93% correct.

I'm clearly way more in touch with the country than anyone else here.

And the Police will be around shortly to ask you to stop touching everyone.

Hey, I didn't do too bady, mid-table respectability and a second as well! Lawks.

Congrats to Malia and Grim... though, awesome.

I did the same as Kern over at SHC: