Be Excellent To Each Other

So the recent mod elections are perhaps an example of this, but not quite on the scale of Invading Syria. Seriously, what the fuck was someone thinking? Is this another example of the recently mentioned "Can't be re-elected, going to go out with a bang" thinking? Bush wanting to sit with a smug grin on his face as he watches Obama trying to stop the middle east collapsing into a worse pile of shit than it already is? Or is it just shitty map reading?

BANNED.

Oh, and while they're at it.

Fucking awesome. Tackling terror one day at a time.

That's an almost daily occurrence, and it took the Yanks sending ground troops in for Pakistan to get *really* pissed off about the US's very relaxed view to Pakistan's territorial integrity.

Dirka Dirka Dirka.

Indeed. I was adding it as extra 'flavour' to the Syrian incident.

Oh, I know. I was adding the extra info as an extra level of WTF??!?!?!?-ness.

Aw, Hawn Brix!

I haven't decided what my BETEO Syria invasion is going to be yet, but it'll be a doozy.

I think we should put you on gardening leave.

Let's get one thing straight. I don't trust you. And if you betray us, I'll rip your fucking balls off and stuff them up your ass so that the next time you shit, you'll shit all over your balls, got it?

I don't like gardening.

And Obama has said that he'll ignore Pakistan borders too, so much for the New President not being a dick to the world thing we were all hoping for too.

If Obama gets in I, for one, will be rather surprised.

I think he's going to get in isn't he?

I'd like to think he's got a reasonable chance. OTOH there's that whole rigged voting machine thing..

Not sure I rate his chance of surviving all that long once he's in, either.

He's ahead between 7 and 10% in the polls. With enough states to easily win. frankley if he doesn't win then I'll be putting my tin foil hat on.

The amount of stuff about the election machines is worrying. I've only watched the first minute or so of this - but this guy says he was asked to write code to fix the vote 51-49. but has no context what so ever so who knows what is going on.

Craster - Obama just has to have everyone who uses their middle name locked up. Assassins always use their full three names, see. It's a dead giveaway.

AP reference!

No he hasn't. He's taken the line of only stepping in if the Pakistan government won't do anything.

I'm prepared, I've got mine neatly smoothed out and the grounding braid attached and everything.

I think he's going to win as well. I also think he stands as good a chance as any other president of surviving if you consider there hasn't been a successful presidential assassination since the 60s has there. Sure, there was a pop at Reagan, but they didn't succeed.

I think he might win in a comparative landslide.

And then die in an assassinative landslide?

Just because you live in the hills and think all black people should be shot overlooks the fact that this guy, when he wins, will have a lot of very well organised protection to stop hill dwelling rubes like you from acting out your racist fantasies. Oh! Waddya mean, Cwmbran isn't twinned with The Appalachian Mountains?

I have never in my life read AP.

/shuts door
Myp, you're back in.

There are some good features on glamour photography, so I hear...

It would require an utterly unprecedented turnover for him not to. Using the "average polls over last week" method, he has a lead over 10% in 260 points worth of states. 270 is the winning margin.

He would need only one of Ohio or Virginia to win, and he's got over 5% in all of those. And that's assuming he ends up losing Colorado and New Hampshire, both of which he's got over 5% in and also that he doesn't win a single state he has under 5% in like Indiana, Montana, North Carolina or Florida (any one of those combined with his 10% or more states is also a win as would Colorado be with New Hamphire or Nevada)

On a pure polls method he's 375-157 up right now, with Montana and North Dakota in a dead tie. Any one of those two with his 10%+ states and Colorado (5%+) would be enough, even if he loses all the other states he has a lead in.

For reference by this point 4 years ago, Kerry was already 257-274 behind Bush, not far off how it finished.



The word's been used. If he wins everything he's ahead in right now he wins 375-157, which is massive, that's only 4 points off Clinton's anihilation of Dole in 1996 for instance, he could beat it with the tied states. (Although nothing compared to Reagan's wins)

I owned a BBC Micro, see, so am a whole infinity cooler than the Amiga owners.

*punches air*

Is that your SFII Turbo thread locking move?

Dudley, I'm worried about the Bradley/Wilder effect. When it comes down to it, will some Americans be physically able to vote for a black man?

The thing I heard on The Radio about that this morning suggested that the Bradley effect was only significant in the states that McCain's going to win anyway. Everywhere else, Obama is outside the percentage effect of the Bradley thingy.

That's ok then.

There's been amusing stuff floating around about speculation of an inverse Bradley - people who'll vote for Obama but would never admit to anyone that they voted for a black man.

There's no evidence it's actually affected any election for some time.

I keep thinking dirty thoughts that they'll fix the election 51-49 and then blame the bradley (or whatever it's called) effect for it...

I need that tether thing Kalmar - I didn't realise my foil hat was so outdated. I need to earth this sucker stat.

Other than the one with the black candidate called Bradley?

Which was in '82 according to radio4 this morning.

Malc

The same source said something like that only a handful (may even have been 0, I wasn't paying full attention) of elections where there was a blackman v a whiteman have suffered from that since then.

Malc

I say Honor Blackman was robbed!

Listen Again Link Here

OK, so yeah it was '82 that the bradley effect happened, and 2 years ago there were 5/6 black v white elections and none were effected, and finally any area where the effect is likely to happen are already safe McCain areas.

Malc

FTFY.

26 years is some time to me.

Lord Chris of course, being billions of years old apparently, has a different opinion.

That's less than a generation ago, mind. And we haven't had many black candidates for the presidency in the last 26 years, have we?

I think the Bradley effect is obviously going to be less prevalant in less important elections i.e. everything that isn't the presidential election.

It's in line with thinking that BBCs and Amigas were contemporaries though

They were for me, though. I still only had a Micro when people at school got Amigas. My dad was a hyowje tight arse. And the BBC was better.