What a day it had been. Gollum was lynched, but not before Legolas senselessly murdered Sam.

Maybe there's some good news overnight.

Or maybe not.

TheVision is dead. He's been brutally stabbed by a Ringwraith.

His staff and spells were not enough to save him.

TheVision was Gandalf


[playerlist]
KovacsC
Saturnalian
zaphod79
Cras
Grim...
ApplePieOfDestiny
Morte
Squirt
[/playerlist]

8 people left. 5 for a lynch.

Day ends at 12.30pm on Wednesday.

Oh FFS

/runs off to hide under the bed.

Hi, I was off killing Gollum, did I miss anything?

You nearly missed the end - we will have probably 2 or 3 baddies

If we have 3 then everyone *not* bad needs to vote for the same baddie to get rid of them

Which given that our 'investigator' role is now gone all we can do is hope he mentioned something useful over the last day or two but i doubt it.

/lies down in the middle of the road

From yesterday - i guess Gandalf 'found' Gollum - most of his posts are how he's convinced Mrchris is bad

Okay - our only 'hope' right now is that Aragorn cannot be killed overnight - so if the baddies target him then there will be no kill , but as soon as the numbers dwindle they can vote him out.

If Gimli is out there tonight may well be a good choice to block any night action as basically its just the baddies (and you if you exist) to do stuff as all the other members of the fellowship have no night powers.

Nope - I'm back to hope is lost

/lies back down in the middle of the road

Ahhhhhhhh balls.

Hmmm, TheVision didn't say anything of use on the second day, so I suppose we can assume he didn't find anyone on the first night. Also, I doubt there's much chance that he's not actually dead and he'll rock up later in a different coloured robe and rescue us all on the back of a big eagle.

That would be nice but i dont think thats happening.

I'm going to mess around with some numbers but i'm not sure if an Aragorn role claim might be the best thing for the fellowship now - he cant be killed overnight and the only advantage is that the baddies may waste a kill action on him.

But if they still have an investigator or someone who can check information like that then they wont accidentally hit him anyway.

Okay - fellowship

Frodo - still alive
Sam - dead (trooper)
Aragorn - still alive
Legolas - left (GJ)
Gimli - maybe around maybe not - only power is to stop all night actions once - if they are still around todays probably a good day to use this?
Merry - maybe - unknown
Pippin - maybe - unknown
Boromir - maybe - unknown
Gandalf - dead (the vision)
Gondorians - some left


Gollum - dead (Mr Chris)

Saruman - dead (Lonewolves) - killed on night 2 - he may have had 2 nights to recruit gondorians but nothing to say that they can then recruit others - so in theory thats just 2 corrupted people but they dont want the wraiths to win any more than the rest.
If they can keep recruiting then this may be an issue but nothing in the rules for that ?



So we only have 1 kill each night which means that they could have blocked or investigated each other night - investigation makes more sense

I would think we have a leader +1 soldier +1 hunter so 3 bad guys left





Ringwraith Terror - Dead (malia) - block 2 players

So its either already over or nearly over , given the day is still running i think we have 3 wraiths left (if we had 4 we could not vote them out so it would already be over?) and it would then make sense for those to be a leader , a hunter, and a killer

Does that all make sense ?

If so , if Aragorn role claims (and is not counter claimed) then we have at least one good person who can then give us a leader to choose who to go for ?

Given that there's not at any point been two night kills from wraiths, I'm assuming that there's a single ringwraith soldier. So there's either 1 leader and 1 soldier, or one leader, 1 soldier, and 1 hunter.

That pretty much means if we don't hit one of them tonight, we lose. Even if we hit the soldier, the leader can take over the kill role.

There's potentially either one or two of Saruman's followers, too - they'll want the Ringwraith's dead but also to ensure that they outnumber the townies, so they'll be playing a weird middle of the road game.

Oh hey, Zaphod just did that.

If Aragorn claims he still has no idea who to vote for.

But we dont accidently kill him.

Its just a numbers game - its one less to accidentally choose - giving the baddies the information that someone is Aragon is the only downside but if they have investigated him they may already know that.

Earlier in the game he could have been overnight killed by Gollum (but that would have to have been an odd choice since Gollum should be out ring hunting)

If we lynch a wraith today there should be 2 left , they kill someone , means tomorrow starts with 6 people 2 bad / 4 good
Killing another wraith tomorrow and they kill overnight means the next day starts with 4 people , 1 bad , and that is as good as it gets.

If we get the wrong person today then its game over

So near perfect choices - probably at random , from now on is a win , anything else is a loss

I'm going back to lying in the middle of the road waiting for a carriage to run me over.

You're not going to accidentally kill Aragorn. He'll roleclaim if a vote starts going his way.

He may not get the chance - if there are 3 bad people then just 2 good votes for the wrong person - they jump on it - game over.

[vote:Curiosity]

He's always evil.

Quiet. Lots of very quiet people trying to hide.

Yo! [vote:KovacsC]! Why shouldn't we vote for you?

Because I am Boromir, not real actions but I am a good guy..

Hmm - a 0-1 role, a fairly safe claim.

Dead Gondorians - Davpaz, Mr Dave, Malc, Mr Russell.
Ringwraiths left - 2/3
Fellowship left - Frodo, Aragorn, plus possibly others

So if there are only two ringwraiths left, and there's a Boromir, then there's only a maximum of 3 Gondorians left. For a total of 7 in the game. Does that seem like a large enough recruiting pool for Saruman out of 18 total characters? Hmm. Maybe. I remain unconvinced.

That's a fairly valid point. And with a pool of named characters that large it seems odd that we managed to pick out some many Gondorians.

so many*

Well, we've only lynched one Gondorian - Malc. All the other lynchings have been baddies. The other three Gondorians have been killed overnight.

I'm minded to say that Kovacs roleclaimed so quickly that I'm inclined to believe him.

So where do we stand on trooper?

Slightly to the side of his grave, it's only polite.

Actually, I'm going to stick my neck out and say that APOD and Kov are on the same team. There's no fucking way he'd let that go normally.

[vote:ApplePieOfDestiny]

Oh, actually [vote:kovacsc] because he's already got one.

Man I was drunk last night.

So if that sits for a while longer then we can assume its correct - because otherwise the 3 bad people could just vote for him and thats the end of the game.

Zaphod seems very certain that there are precisely three bad people.

No , I said there are probably 3 wraiths

I also think there is probably a corrupted gondorian that Myp got to

If there were 4 Wraiths left the game would be over

I dont think its likely that we'd get those power wraith roles and no one would get to use them so i think its likely we had one of each (we know we had 3 at least).

Certain you are that there are not two wraiths.

And what do you do after that ?

Personally I think four wraiths with 2 out of 3 night powers available per night and also Saruman stacks the deck quite heavily against the Gondorans. However I'm not certain that there would be 3 rather than 4 Wraiths, whereas you are and the only people who could be certain is a Wraith.

So I'll [vote: Zaphod] until it's proven otherwise.

So just to confirm your voting for me because i think there are a specific number of baddies in the game ?

[vote:ApplePieOfDestiny]

And you're voting for me because I voted for you? Meanie.

Mind you it's a pretty safe bet for you as you know I'm not one of the 2/3 Wraiths and if you luck out you'll hit a dwarf or Aragon.

only claimed, as Craster voted for me.. or I would have stayed stum.

I don't have any powers. To be fair a few days ago I said I was quiet as I was defending my city.. as in the white city.

That was 5.30 today

Thing is, APoD probably isn't a ringwraith, because he asked about trooper, who they killed. Or he's cunning.

You're so fucking bad at this.

Nope was a few days ago,

So the day ends in about 2 1/2 hours

If we vote for the wrong person , the game is basically over
If we vote for the right person we still need a string of good choices after that
If the day times out the baddies kill overnight (probably) but its not the end (7 people left - 4 to lynch someone) but its still at the 'everyone but the baddies need to be involved and i dont think we'll get that

applepieofdestiny: 1 (zaphod79)
kovacsc: 2 (Cras, Grim...)

Not voted: 5 (kovacsc, saturnalian, applepieofdestiny, morte, squirt)

With 8 players alive, 5 votes are required for a lynch, and 5 nolynch votes are required to not lynch anybody.

http://www.beexcellenttoeachother.com/counter/

Well I don't think I would survive the night, now I have role claimed. Shall we try and get a baddie, rather than me a goodie

http://www.beexcellenttoeachother.com/counter/quiet.php

Who are the quiet ones?
Posts:

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[applepieofdestiny] => 6
[kovacsc] => 4
[squirt] => 3
[curiosity] => 1
[morte] => 1
[saturnalian] => 0
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[vote:saturnalian] as he is quieter than me

To be fair your a 'nobody' and the bad people know there are really just them and us left - they dont have any problem killing anyone - the fact your not Aragorn (if they did not know this already) may well mean your up to be killed , however they may well leave you because you've attracted votes (therefore its easier to convince other people that you are bad)