Oh noes Cras is dead!

You find him dressed as a Nazi, with a book about appreciating music by rating it on scales (me neither. This might help, though: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjHORRHXtyI ).

There are a few notes strewn around claiming that The Blues Brothers is a musical - and some of them have been crossed out as he apparently changed his mind.

And, still left over from Jazzy's visit, there are some big rubber dongs - that look very well-used.

Oh, and he has the word "BLEM" written on his forehead in lipstick.

Cras was Craster (d'uh).

[playerlist]
bobbyaro
GazChap
Mimi
Mr Russell
zaphod79
[/playerlist]

Day three ends at midday on Thursday, or sooner.

With 5 players alive, 3 votes are required for a lynch, and 3 nolynch votes are required to not lynch anybody.

Can't believe that Cras was so lucky to get that role!

[vote: Mr Russell] I just can't past the fact he has acted so scummy. I reckon he managed to pull a last gasp save from the bag with that role claim and has been laughing at us since then.

No more Good Old Boys then (unless they've decided not to kill to sow confusion, but at this stage that wouldn't make sense I don't think?)

If that's the case, then it's just the Mystery Woman to find.

Now is probably the time for the investigator to give us some information - hopefully they've got something that will actually be of use and can help us narrow down who the killer is.

Craster was Craster!

Well, that seems to have confirmed that he was indeed visited (as he said) by Jazzy. So, as suspected she did have a night action and though not the Serial Killer was not interested in aiding the band to play.

It's a shame nobody spoke up to day they'd been visited the second night (it couldn't have been the SK as they still killed) so maybe she either didn't role block or the person she role blocked was killed that same night.

I think I'm narrowing my thoughts as to who might be the SK, more on the basis that there are people I think are NOT the SK due to their candidness, but obviously this is a game based on fibs. However, such as with Craster, candidness lowers the odds of that person hiding as their are always risks associated with claiming either a fact or role.

Gazchap still feels to be high on the list of suspects to me, (for the same reason as before) but also at least one other. However, I really want to hear what people say before I say anything more today.

Ooh, simul-post.

Actually, I think Russell is least suspicious. I do really believe he is the Donsld Duck person he claims.

Have you been investigated, Gaz? Why do you think we have an investigator? Assuming this is the Reverend Clephus, someone will have been told they were dancing all night. Has anyone been told that they've danced?

I wouldn't just assume we had an investigator role, why do you?

I'm only assuming that we have one because, if we don't, the town would have been rather underpowered. Let's face it, it's only really been lucky that we've managed to off the Good Ol' Boys so speedily - this could have gone very differently up until now.

And no, I've not been investigated.

Right: Bobby, Gaz, Zaphod - what characters are you? Assuming you've got nothing to hide, who are you? Any of you want to counterclaim my role, or Russell's?

So you're just a plain old band member? Which one?

Provided that you and Russ are telling the truth, then I don't have a problem roleclaiming.

I'm going to assume that you are given that no-one's come forward to counterclaim.

I'm not a plain old band member. I'm Elwood.

If you're both telling the truth, this means that we have a band majority that we can use to try and hunt down the serial killer - if I've done my maths right.

I considered roleclaiming yesterday after it was confirmed that it doesn't matter if both Jake and I are dead.

I dont see the claim stuff working -but for the record I'm Tom 'Bones' Malone

Elwood is a plain old band member as far as the game is concerned at present. The SK has no more desire to kill Elwood than any other band member, so essentially you are vanilla: Chic lady (who did have an interest in you) is now dead. Nobody else has any interest in your role as anything more than a band member.

However, I think that is a strong claim as we HAVE to have an Elwood, and unless somebody counter-claims, we know that role exists, which then lays my suspicions at Bobby or Zaphod IF neither counter-claim you being Elwood (or myself or Russell's roles).

bobbyaro - ???
GazChap - Elwood Blues
Mimi - Willie 'Too Big' Hall
Mr Russell - Donald 'Duck' Dunn
zaphod79 - Tom 'Bones' Malone

Well, if everyone's telling the truth, that makes it fairly clear.

Amazing.

Poor Jazzy. I guess if she'd revealed some of her info a bit earlier we'd not have ended up accidentally lynching her.

And if Cras was roleblocked again on the second night I don't understand why he lied about being visited. Still, no matter now.

We turn our thoughts to the brand new day, with beautiful ideas that it's definitely just us and the serial killer. Myself, Mimi and GazChap have now roleclaimed.

Gaz's is the best as it can be proved or disproved, which leaves either Bobbyaro or Zaphod79 as the mystery woman. Best roleclaim now, boys!

Balls, sorry Mimi, picked the wrong name for your roleclaim in my post. Should have referred back rather than relying on my memory.

Quite right.

Assuming zaphod is telling the truth then bobby loses by being last. He can either claim as Elwood, or he can claim as a band member, or he can claim as an investigator to say how he magically found the serial killer last night.

Bobby is the only one to cast a vote so far today. I find that interesting.

And Bobby, unless he counter claims any of the present four, will just claim to be someone else, BUT I think that Russell's initial claim stands, because why risk it otherwise? Nobody has counterclaimed and this was when there were a lot of bodies to doing so. I claimed my role early (first day, second post I made) in terms, and then clearly still quite early on, because I could never see why I would hide my character. I believe Gaz on the proviso that Bobby does not come in and now counterclaim.

If he doesn't, I'd say it comes down to Bobby or Zaphod.

The only spanner is if we have Alan Rubin, who is trying to sabotage, so just bear that in mind also.

The issue is that there are multiple band members left

bobbyaro - (unclaimed as yet)
Cras - Craster
Curiosity - Good Ol Boy
DavPaz - Jake
GazChap - Claimed as Elwood
goddess jasmine - Chic Lady
joans - Good Ol Boy
malia - Sister Mary Stigmata
Mimi - Claimed as Matt 'Guitar' Murphy
Mr Russell - Claimed as Donald 'Duck' Dunn
saturnalian - Good Ol Boy
sdg - Steve 'The Colonel' Cropper
zaphod79 - Claimed as Tom 'Bones' Malone

That leaves :

Murphy 'Murph' Dunne (0-1) is a member of the band. He wants the band to perform.
Willie 'Too Big' Hall (0-1) is a member of the band. He wants the band to perform.
'Blue Lou' Marini (0-1) is a member of the band. He wants the band to perform.
Alan 'Mr. Fabulous' Rubin (0-1) is a member of the band. He doesn't want the band to perform.

Reverend Cleophus James (0-1) wants the Blues Brothers to succeed. Each night, he can investigate a person and, using his years of experience as a preacher, he will find out all about them. Whoever is investigated will spend the night dancing at the Triple Rock Baptist Church, but will leave if they need to do anything else. They will, of course, be aware that they were dancing all night, but they won't recognise the Reverend the next day. He wants the band to succeed.

I'm assuming that The Rev is not in the game but if Bobby is the SK he can just claim to be any of the others and we dont really get anything else.

If I was bobby and was the serial killer then I'd claim as Elwood because that leaves three people suspicious (gaz, bobby and zaphod). If bobby claims as a band member or investigator then it leaves gazchap's roleclaim to stand, leaving the suspicion as only on two people*

Either way it's pretty sweet, but the only thing raising my FOS this morning is the fact that bobby was so quick to throw out a vote, when actually it's better to sit back and contemplate at this stage.

*unless he claims to have investigated gazchap and says he's the killer.

All the above is based on both Mimi and I being town due to the early roleclaims. Figure that into your own analysis if you think that either of us are lying, obviously.

That's OK. So far (for clarity) we have:

bobbyaro - ???
GazChap - Elwood Blues
Mimi - Matt 'The Guitar' Murphy
Mr Russell - Donald 'Duck' Dunn
zaphod79 - Tom 'Bones' Malone

And yes, Bobby was quick off the mark with a vote before discussion, but he could just be very sure of his suspicions. However, I believe that this is either a ploy on his part or just flawed in his thinking: will wait to see what he says before deciding which.

I don't think bobby will claim as any claim here so far, as it would be too easy to disprove. Nor we he claim investigator as we will force him to spill his investigations and it will be too easy to disprove or he will have conveniently investigated only dead people.

Therefore we'll be left with zaphod and bobby being scummy.

I think Bobby was trying to get a vote running on you, Russ, precisely because he figured that today would be when everyone roleclaims and he wouldn't effectively be able to hide for much longer.

But I've been wrong before.

We kind of do, though, because with each time someone has put off roleclaiming it has reduced the 'pot' of people left to choose from, so someone trying to hide would increase their odds of not claiming their role until the end. Plus, if bobby counterclaims any of teh four roles above then we are in proper business...

Basicaly the whole game now swings on what bobby says next.

Are you sweating, bobby, are you nervous?

No, because you are assuming he is guilty. He has every reason to counterclaim a role if he is innocent. If he was (for example) Elwood, he would now tell us in the knowledge that if he were telling the truth we would have to vote for either he or Gaz, but he wouldn't claim an empty role if he were actually Elwood, to allow Gaz to get away with it.

Let's just see what he says...

Yes, I was assuming he is guilty, when actually my suspicions can still be on any of the other three. Unless you've played an absolute blinder of a game and are the SK, Mimi.

I am 'Blue Lou' Marini.

Pretty certain that Russ is the SK.

Mimi, you keep saying things like:

Why would Russ claim...?

because he was about to be killed!!

Russ has been the most consistently blood thirsty and has tried to kill the most people during the day.

He punted on a lucky guess and is killing himself (and us) laughing.

So GazChap that makes you definitely Elwood.

I would say then, that suspicions aside, as nobody has counter-claimed Gaz, that basically he is the only one who can be fully trusted.

I personally would vote for Zaphod or Bobby at this stage, but I think we should go with what GazChap says.

Of course you would, you would vote for anyone and everyone. Indeed you have.

Ok, do any of you have any past hints to your role that you have posted in previous days/posts to give any extra credence?

Otherwise, I will still FOS both Bobby and Zaphod.

Gaz, I think must be clear as nobody else has claimed Elwood, who we know is in the game, and as the two last claimants you have reduced your odds of hitting an empty role. I put my bid to my role on day one. You are right, Russell claimed under duress, but was also the first person do do so, so in an odds-based game is the least likely to have managed to successfully lie (apart from Gaz). Therefore, based on the fact that of the last two claimants (Bobby and Zaphod) Bobby was so quick off teh mark to get the ball rolling on voting today:

[Vote:Bobbyaro]

And if it isn't him it's Zaphod.

I honestly have no clue which of you guys is fibbing.

To my mind, Mr Russell is least likely to be lying as his pool of 0-1 roles was highest and had the most chance of being counterclaimed.

By that same logic, Bobbyaro is most likely to be lying, as he essentially had a pre-packaged list of people he could choose to be. But Zaphod79 isn't far behind.

Mimi roleclaimed on day 3 but had hinted at her role on day 1 (apparently, not being that familiar with the lore I can't say for sure.)

Bobby throwing a vote in for Russ immediately would make sense to me, if he was the investigator and had found Russ to be guilty. But he's claimed to be a normal band member.

It's between Bobby and Zaphod, but I'm going to have to [vote:Bobbyaro] - I hope I'm right.

Hmm? I don't know what that means in terms of the game? If you mean you are not familiar with the film characters, neither am I: I looked a picture up on the internet, which is why it is appearance-based

To be fair, that is pretty much exactly my thinking. I think it is close between Zaphod and Booby: it was the super-quick vote cast that just split the hairs, though.

So for all those saying Mr Russ claimed on day 1 - no he didn't - he claimed on day 2 and the pool of names that he could pick from has not changed until today

Here is his claim

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=10535&p=869375&hilit=Donald+%27Duck%27#p869375

At that point SDG was already 'known' - and all the other band members have not been 'removed' - so picking a role that no-one else would have would have been a 4 in 7 chance of being right - for someone that was about to be lynched he had a better than 50% chance of picking a 'good' name.

See now this is interesting.

One more vote seals the deal for bobby, and as a SK you want everyone dead, so you holding off actually lowers your suspicion rating.

So by that reckoning, zaphod might be either alright, or Alan Rubin, and I'll [vote:bobbyaro]

VOTE UPDATE

mr russell: 1 (Bobbyaro)
bobbyaro: 3 (Mimi, GazChap, Mr Russell)

Not voted: 1 (zaphod79)

With 5 players alive, 3 votes are required for a lynch, and 3 nolynch votes are required to not lynch anybody.

http://www.beexcellenttoeachother.com/counter/

Nope - Bobbyaro was Alan 'Mr. Fabulous' Rubin. Just like he said.