ElephantBanjoGnome wrote:
Since I'm also interested in what others think, what did Kern and Cavey think?
My money is actually now on a hung parliament with some potential for a second election. Everyone seems be bullishly trying to rule out deals, although I suppose a formal ConLib might happen again - they've both left it open. A majority is off the table. No words said in the last 7 days can conjure that miracle for either party.
I called 2010 wrong: I was expecting Cameron to limp across the line to a majority of around 10. Oops.
Right now, I too am thinking that either Miliband or Cameron will run a minority administration that will limp on for 18 months or so before calling a new election. I don't think there will be an October poll this year: both will want time to show they can govern and demonstrate to the public that they need a majority. However, it is likely that the election will happen because they can't govern and the incumbent will be forced out.
Tactically, even if I was leading the party with the most seats I'd let the opposition in so they can crash out and I can enter with a working majority. Cameron isn't secure enough in the Tory party to pull off such a Baldwinesque trick though: the party will devour him if he can't hold onto power.
Anyone fancy running a sweepstake?