Joans wrote:
But the Sire didn't know the rules were going to change, so his sit tight policy was one he was looking to adopt for the whole game (until the odds were more in his favour)?
"Until the odds were more in his favour" and "for the whole game" are two different things.
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What would he do tonight if the rules were still the same. Wait again?
Personally, I would have. Two more deaths tonight.
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What if a Van Halen had died (either through lynching/SK or Childe). Is he safe then, or does he have to wait for the other one to die too?
What if there isn't another one, does he just wait forever?
It's not about being "safe", it's about managing risk. If he'd bitten last night and gone back today, he'd have a 66% chance of getting killed, only surviving if there were no VHs at all. If he'd had the childe bite a decoy as well, he'd have a 42% chance of getting killed, surviving if there were no VH, if the VH had picked the wrong man to protect or if both VHs picked the wrong man.
If a VH goes down and he sends out a decoy bite, his odds of getting killed when he goes back the following night plummet to 25%. If you also consider that every time he bites he's taking a chance of getting tailed and revealed, and the fact that he's got next to no chance of being nightkilled and only slightly more chance of being lynched, why wouldn't he wait and see how things play out for a bit?
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What if there aren't any, does he just wait forever?
If in a couple of days a third of the town's gone down with no evidence of roleblocking, no VH bodies showing up, and nobody roleclaiming you have to start figuring there's a chance there's not one. Like I said, you're not dealing in certainties, you're dealing in odds. But when you're nearly invulnerable from every threat in the game, what's the point of taking a flat coinflip on day 1 on whether you live or die?
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While I admit the way the rules stand, there was very little chance of him getting in two consecutive bites (ever, while at least 1 VH was alive, not just the first two nights), so I can appreciate him not doing anything, but the odds were against anything going wrong for him.
There are on average 1.66 roles who can tail in the game. With 21 players in the game, there was an 8% chance of the Sire getting tailed and being revealed as vamp.
There are an average of 2.5 "power townie" roles. With 21 players in the game, there was a 12% chance of the Sire hitting one of them.
Risk your Unlife for an extra 4% chance of a good result?