Be Excellent To Each Other

So, Tunisians began grumbling amongst themselves from about December, and culminated in chucking out the leader President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, because, frankly, fuck him and the policy of living under the cosh of restricted rights to have a slow but steady economic growth. "Interesting", I thought to myself, "We could witness a major sea change across all of North Africa".

Sure enough, protests in Egypt have left three people dead, people protesting about the government. Unsurprisingly, they are pissed off with President Hosni Mubarak, who doesn't really do being told he's doing shit wrong.

This has also now rippled out to Morocco, Jordan, Algeria and Libya. Dissent in the ultimate country is exceedingly rare, especially as you don't really talk down to the Colonel; Algeria has always been a bit hatstand since the early 1990s; Jordan is run by a ruling family as does Morocco.

The common theme here is: Shitty government quashing dissent with an iron fist; Opulent ruling class tramping over the proletariat; rising prices for food and fuels; and fuck autocracies.

The interesting bit, for the future is:

What will replace these autocracies?

So it's the French/American revolutions again, basically. The more democracy the better as far as I'm concerned. Let's hope that some chancer general doesn't get an idea to build a north African empire though, eh?

<whistles innocently and slides suitcase back under bed>

I'm still pissed off with the American Revolution. Fucking cheats.

How so? We won.

Sure they call themselves Americans these days, but that doesn't change where they came from

I'd like to think that the shitty regimes are on their last legs. The main fear is that they don't get replaced by a new shitty regime.

EDIT And that's a rather non-helpful reply but I'm not up to speed on the intricacies of African politics.

Protest in Egypt are still going on. I guess it's a question of who will blink first - there has to be a moment when those surrounding the regime have to decide whether it's worth supporting Mubarak or not. Christmas in Romania in 1989 is probably at the back of everyone's minds.

NY Times saying Yemen* is looking turbulent (well, more so than normal) too, now


*(Is it 'The Yemen', or 'Yemen'?)

So, they've cut off the Internet in Egypt then?

Did a quick test and I can't access the Cairo airport website (http://www.cairo-airport.com/)

One website does not a blackout make, but that's the kind of site you'd expect to be able to access.

It's all over Reddit (not exactly Reuters, I know)

http://imgur.com/JLAGz

I would really like to think that my friend who's sunning himself on the Sinai at the moment has headed straight to Cairo to observe it all. Probably because I'm still annoyed at being way too young to appreciate or understand the events of 1989, let alone head over there to watch it all.

Seriously, I'm pretty sure he's keeping well and switched on enough not to take unnecessary risks. He's not popped up on sinister Facebook in the last 24 hours however.

No-one in Egypt will have. It very much has cut itself off from the wider internet.

Aye - very much how I knew the reports weren't being exaggerated

I'm sure he's aware that in a riot, it's better to fight the police than the crowd, no?

\
"Brian! We haven't seen you in ages!"
"Boooooys!"

That's how I used to play British Bulldog, however, the others very rarely carried riot sheilds and batons!

Malc

Egyptian curfew about to start, according to BBC & Guardian. Mubarak has asked the army to enforce it. Looks like it's going to be a turbulent few hours.

That's a very odd photo. Hugely sad, because you know that guy was probably beaten to a pulp shortly afterwards, but hopeful in that maybe the people can pull this off. Still, having read the report of the Guardian journo who was 'arrested', it strikes me that there's going to be a lot more bloodshed in Egypt before this is over. And a Soviet-era domino effect is clearly happening.

I'm currently watching the BBC News feed. Fascinating times, but I'm wondering if the military will turn on the public, or if they'll give Mubarak the shove.

FTFY.

The worry with Egypt is that the MB will piggy back on this and end up filling whatever vacuum is left if (and given the security apparatus and extensive practice the guy's had at staying in power, it's a big fucking if) Mubarak is ousted/ends up in an unmarked grave/disappears with all the money.

Yes. Remember that Egypt is the only country in that region with normal relations with Israel.

Indeed, which is why Clinton is being so circumspect in her response to the whole thing.

Iran are going to be shovelling activists in like no one's business.

It's almost as though foreign people are capable of fighting for their own rights, rather than needing us to do it 'for' them, and killing hundreds of thousands of them in the process.

I'd be surprised if the army turn on the public - they seem to be very much of the same stock. Mubarak is fucked if he's lost the army. I can only assume that some heavy-duty negotiations are going on, and I can't really see how the government could do anything but capitulate in a massive way without sparking a losing battle.

I think you're right. He's on his way out. Not likely to see a Egyptian Tienanmen Square here.

Who is this guy on al jazeera right now? Young guy with a beard. I think he's New Zealandian. Very good input, including: "I think it's dangerous to call it a 'twitter revolution' or a 'facebook revolution'. It's a revolution of the people."

Cameron finally speaks!

Diplomacy in action!

Still can't stop seeing 'Nipples across the world'.

There's certainly lots of tits.

Nicely put

I don't think I've watched Al Jazeera before but have been impressed with its coverage tonight. That young Frasier Crane was very good, yes.

Looks like the army are protecting the museum from possible looters.

Rumours that Mubarak has fled to Switzerland. Maybe he had to use up his holidays.

Announcement on Egyptian state tv 'very soon'. Crumbs.

The skiing's better than in Saudi



Quite.
I'm currently streaming Al-Jazeera and BBC, hopping between them. Any other good feeds?

Same here, I'm not aware of any others coming up with much. There's a fair bit of written coverage on the usual sites, though.

Beeb feed seems right so far, have to check out the Al Jazeera reporting though. I've read their stuff but never watched.

I reckon the current government is on the way out, probably without much bloodshed in the end. Bad things can never be ruled out though, Tianamen Square was peaceful for a couple of days before things went terrible.

Also, in the footage I'm watching, what grievence has that Egyptian guy got against TV's Trisha? He makes a gun hand and shouts her name.

Mubarak speech covered on al jazeera live now. http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

So, he's not resigning then, but sacking his administration? Wonder how that's going to go down.

Holy shit. He's not stepped down, but he's telling the government to. Will this be enough? A very, very dangerous weekend ahead, I think.

Crumbs, missed the speech, but don't look good for Mr Mubarek. Who'd want to stay in power after 30 years though? Idiot. Perhaps those Presidential breakfasts are awesome.

Paraphrased: "I welcome freedom of expression that wouldn't be allowed in Egypt without me." My nose almost sucked into my face with that snort. I can't see how he'll stay in power sacking everyone around him. I imagine the military are making deals right now.

The crowd outside the NDP building are looking pretty rowdy. Oddly, the footage seems to have tailed off. I think it all hinges on what the army do right now, there doesn't seem to be any other focal point for the crowd.

Edit: Unconfirmed reports that the army have kicked off in Cairo. Protestors dispersing.

Start at home, mother fucker.

Once again, Newsround says in 150 words or so what the rolling news channels take hours to say.
The video report is clear too.

AlJazeera reporting that protestors have returned to the streets, whilst Jon Snow has tweeted that China are blocking news reports (I bet the Communist Party is shitting themselves )

I've just watched the newsround video to catch up. You're right, very clear.


And in "other news" http://news.bbc.co.uk/cbbcnews/hi/newsi ... 543622.stm



It's all connected man..

I did wonder about last night - all the live footage just stopped after Mubarak made his speech. It was really quite irritating, too - there was a report from reuters that the army had started off in Cairo, but nobody was showing or even saying what that actually meant, and what the protestors were doing. I can't imagine how the army could have shooed that many off without there being serious casualties.

That newsround link should be sent to every journalist and reporter in this country. Seriously, not a word wasted, no idiotic bullshitting and ridiculous speculation, and somehow less patronising than coverage aimed at adults.

Catching up... my MP is marching on the Embassy with the UKuncut/students/etc. lot.

The big men in the new cabinet are military men... curfew still in force but thousands defying it. Security services threatening crufew breakers. Reports of looters and shootings, though the military has asked the protestors to help police themselves, and they are reportedly trying to do so by forming neighbourhood watch groups.

This isn't going to go away without a battle

The military still seem to be popular with the crowd - it's the police doing the killing, according to reporters on the ground. I wonder what they'll do if they're ordered to attack the crowd. Eesh, those poor sods.

Al-Jazeera reporting that they've been ordered to stop operations in Egypt
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middl ... 94161.html

Various reports of looting etc. BBC reporting APCs on the streets, whilst Channel 4 say they have machine guns.



Aye.

I don't really have much to comment about the situation, other than moan about the indecisive response from the west. Just waiting to see how it plays out.

My sister works out in Sharm, which mostly escaped the initial stuff, but as the prez is apparently staying there (in his summer 'palace'), things are heating up.. at least one person shot in Naarma bay (about a mile from my sisters flat...)

Anyway, most of the troops on the ground are conscripts/military service, and sympathise more with the people. I suspect, if this doesn't turn into a crazy dictators last stand, what will happen is:

Police/secret service bog off to neighbouring countries before they get strung up by mobs (taking their hard-extorted private stashes with them) (already happening)

Mubarak refuses to do anything except juggle the pieces. (yesterday)

Miltary step into more police role (like real police as opposed to the local bribe-hoovers they had) unofficially, keeping the police and trying to make sure noone burns down anything expensive. (probably end of today/tomorrow)

Mubarak shuffles some more cronies, noone cares, then Mubarak calls on the chiefs of staff to put down the revolution.

That's when it will go one of two ways...
If the chief of staff is any sort of realist, he will take a look at the troops he has (who will be very reluctant to open fire - they are military service conscripts, not the 'career' policemen who have the vested interest in keeping their little corrupt scheme going. Then the chief of staff will very politely ask Mubarak to step down with a shred of dignity before they point the tank guns at his palace...
Cue people cheering, new elections, same old stuff - different people in charge (although a highly suspect power grab by the muslim brotherhood is also likely, but Egyptians are a pretty secular bunch so I wouldn't expect it to go very far)


Breaking news: Army is heading into Sharm. This is BIG as they are not normally allowed anywhere near it due to treaties with Israel.

Didn't know about the Sharm treat Mr Dom, you're right, that is significant. Al Jazeera footage shows fighter jets buzzing the crowd and a surveilance helicopter, and tanks rolling up the streets. Army is urging people to go back indoors before night falls. Al Jazeera is concerned that a 'counter revolution' may be about to be activated, as if foreign media is shut down the army will think they will be able to use force without as much in the way of damaging footage. They fear elements in the government still in control of army may be angling alongside Murabek for a show-down with the demonstrators. Would the army obey orders if - IF - it came to this?

Very tense in Cairo at the moment. Egyptian State TV is avoiding showing the crowds.

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

Well, you can always rely on Fox News