sinister agent wrote:
Also, can we go back to calling it the active sounding "global warming", rathe than the passive newspeak "climate change", which so conveniently sounds more like something that's inevitable and normal and nothing to do with us please?
The reason for this semantic change is, the cynic inside me says, that if the whole thing proves to be a crock of shit and human CO2 output doesn't in fact warm the planet, then any climatic change - warming or cooling - can be blamed on CO2 emissions.
I am a believer in cutting emissions, getting away from our oil dependency and generally being less shitty to the place our species calls home, but I'm not so sure about this agw theory or of its, supposedly proven, cause. My major areas of doubt are:
1) The planet is an insanely complicated thing; it seems to me too convenient that CO2 is the one and only cause of global warming. In a way it would be good if it is, because we'd then be on the road to controlling the climate and eventually even the weather - but nothing's every that simple, surely?[/quote]
An argument of disbelief, CFCs were a single huge factor in the whole in the Ozone layer and banning them has started a slow healing process (last time I checked at least) so disbelief doesn't change whether it is true or not. But also a straw man. No one thinks CO2 is the be all and end all of climate change. But thats not saying it's a large factor. As a unit of environmental cost CO2 is a good (if not perfect) standard to use. At least to get people thinking properly. But it is clearly a first step.
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2) It seems to me that a lot of the scientific evidence is based on computer modelling. Computer models are in themselves complicated things, even when dealing with comparatively simple things like finance - and look how good they were at predicting the current economic situation. Plus they can be "tweaked" to give a preferred result.
I've done a PhD in a computer modelling, and there is a lot of truth in that. But that doesn't mean that they can't inform and illuminate truth. There is a thing done in science called bench marking. Where disparate groups working across the planet work on independently derived models. Then they fly somewhere pretty and all model the same situation together. differences between the models are then analysed to see the range in opinion and confidence in the data. It helps minimise people tweaking and computational quirks from the physics.
Aside: I think most people in finance new what was going to happen but was making too much money to think about the long term. We know we are going to run out of oil (and plastic and drugs) but look at us.
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4) If the problem and its causes are real, then we're fucked anyway. Not least because our elected governments talk a great game about getting agreements on emissions, cutting CO2 and going on jollys to Bali, but actually haven't achieved a damn fucking thing. If it isn't real, then they can quietly hush that up and claim that the "action" they've taken solved the problem.
No we aren't. Thats just defeatest. And regardless of whether we do it now or in a few generations, as the total energy output of human endevours (which rises exponetially) becomes of order of the energies involved in the climate then we will effect it.
Yes what we are doing today won't achieve anything if things are really bad, but it is the first step to changing mankinds viewpoint on things. To poo-poo that is madness.
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5) There's always talk of the science in the media, but never talk about the science - who conducted the research, what the methodology was, no discussion of peer review, very little dissent...
Welcome to all science journalism ever. If we had that, then we would be years ahead in sorting outselves out of the mess we are making for ourselves.
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6) Notice how those scientists who do dissent are treated as pariahs; it's almost as if disagreeing with the theories behind agw is as bad as denying the Holocaust. Politically correct science is not a good thing - and in fact is an abomination.
That would be an abomination but thankfully it isn't the case. At all.
Corporate interests and political interests often pretend their is a huge coverup that is getting people shut and it's the same bullshit that the creationists use.
Yes there is debate amongst actual climate people (because that is what happens in good science), but it's informed debate. The matter of %s and errors. Not some binary 'it isn't/it is happening crap'
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7) I also wonder how many scientists have seen how much money is floating around for research into agw and either a) jumped on the bandwagon ditching whatever they were researching, or b) found a slant on their current research (either real or not) so they can tap into the fund.
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha hah aha ha ha hah ha ha ha. Oh god my sides. Oh wow. Ha ha. ha. Wheeze wheeze. I promise you, no one is getting rich via research into global warming. Getting money for anything is hell for an academic exactly because you don't get into a field by promising specific results.
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I find the rise of far-right "eco" groups, who justify their actions with agw, disturbing. Got some acid thrown in your face did you? That'll teach you to deny global warming*.
very much