Be Excellent To Each Other

BBC Linky: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7358761.stm

Here's the comedy of this story. Georgian UAV is shot down, by what looks shocklingly like a Russian MiG-29.

Have a look at the video on the story, and compare what you see with this stock photo of a MiG-29:



Now compare that and the video to this, a picture of the L39, the plane that the Abkhazia authorities claim shot down the plane:



Seriously, the Russians must think we're all idiots. It continues to baffle me that governments and officials react to damning evidence just by.... denying it, even when its really really obvious they're lying.

In soviet Russia, film shoots you!

But it works. It galls me as much as anyone, but it really does work. People will believe, or even simply forget, anything.

Pretty excellent footage from that camera, that. Watching the missile streak out from miles away, not appearing to change much for several seconds, and then close in a picosecond... can't help but wonder how many lives have ended on that image.

I'll never tire of that 'In Soviet Russia X Y's you' joke.

Hope Russia doesn't decide on another war in the next ten years - or indeed ever again. A surprising number of people have forgotten just how ultra-brutal Chechnya was. I read a big online history on it recently, and it's probably one of the most crushingly distressing reads around. Basically a load of drunk generals not planning properly, badly organised troops shovelled in and get massacred and then they shell and carpet bomb lots of villages to supress resistence. Later on, over a period of a few nights over Christmas and New Years, Russia actually lost several hundred (high hundreds) soldiers killed in city fighting - with entire units wiped out to a man by a Chechen Tet-style Offensive.

And amazingly, Russia is still belligerent. Wonder if Putin has made a genuine change to the combat readiness of his troops?

Not the most cheerful post I've ever made. Hmm.

America and Russia are still annoying each other daily I think.
Last I heard was Russia getting arsey because America just happened to want to move on over to a base somewhere close to their border.
I'm going to have to go and look for the info on that because I've forgotten where it is.
They just love to have a go at each other and do things that wind each other up.
Not that this has much to do with said plane but It's early and that's my sum total of info about Russia about now..oh that and I love said Russia jokes too.

I can see why Russia might feel threatened - the buffer they had in Eastern Europe is going, and all this American anti-ballistic-missile stuff is technically breaking the SALT. If you were a paranoid militaristic nutter, which I think Putin may well be, all of the US's goings on in the Middle East / Central Asia could well be interpreted as an attempt to surround Russia, what with all those former soviet -stans buddying up to the US to a dregree. Plus the rapidly growing Chinese industrial power, India and Pakistan having nukes and you've got a "whole world against us" thing going on.

Let's just hope they don't decide to cut off all our gas one cold winter.

I think that the main deal with Russia, at the moment, the beautiful gymnast saga notwithstanding, is that after the fall of the 'old russia' the 'new russia' is now beginning to wake up and, as a result, is using this sort of pressure and testing, if you will, the patience of other countries in an attempt to reestablish itself as a superpower again. It does have the military might, and also, the oil reserves to back it up. Also, with the US going in capitalist meltdown, there is a power vacuum, to be filled with either the Chinese or the Russians.

Shame the people are starving though.
Or I might be wrong.

This is pretty common, Mr Gnomes. An interesting example from recent history is the Russians sort of bombing a Georgian village episode, which was quite funny. In a not very funny sort of way.

I think Russia just enjoys continually putting the shits up Georgia, to remind them that they have one of the world's largest militaries parked next door to them, and so they jolly well better not cosy up to those Western sorts or... well. Oh! Look at all these tanks and aeroplanes, eh? What are those doing there? Nothing about this overwhelming firepower on your doorstep should concern you, comrades. Even if they keep accidentally bombing and shooting at you.

My money is most definitely on China. If Southeast Asia hasn't taken over the world by the time I'm old and dignified enough to look good in a hat, I'll eat my hat. Possibly with very cheaply imported soy sauce.

Imported? By then it'll be made locally, wherever you are.

By then, China will have found a way to pay people to accept their exports and still make a profit.

We'll be like native African tribes men when the Portuguese first stumbled upon them. We'll be giving the Chinese our gold and ivory in return for their soy sauce and plastic trinkets.

I knew the Georgians made good houses, but I didn't know that had built spy planes

I feel a bit morbid about saying this; but as soon as I saw that the footage I instantly hoped I would see how the UAV got shot down. Good job it's unmanned!

So... a Georgian spy plane, I'm guessing somewhere near one or 'tother side of the Russia/Georgia Border. Why would they have a spy plane there? To learn what the Russian military has up its sleeve? Looks like mission accomplished and shut up moaning to me. Not like they MOABed a nursery, is it? We're talking a spy plane here, not a UN grain convoy.

Read BBC link - they were clearly operating in Georgian airspace.

Yes but I think Goatboy is trying to say they wouldn't have any reason to even own such a plane except to spy on Russia.

Or perhaps the rebellious parts of the country?

No doubt Russia has spyplanes too, but that doesn't mean anyone can just fly into Russia to shoot them down, does it?

They probably shot that priest down as well.

But drones aren't spy planes. They have radar profiles, they're not built for stealth but to survey territory. You'd use an advanced stealth fighter to do that (unlikely, it'd be a hostile act) or rely on the electronics of your homeland CAPs to scan enemy airspace. There was no way that drone could enter Russian territory without it being ultimately noticed, not unless all the Russian radar men were drunk.

Oh. Wait.

And I guess there's always the possibility that Georgia would try it and then claim a defect took it off course if noticed. But that seems unlikely to me. I see it as sabre rattling. And it all boils down again to the fact that the Russians claimed they didn't shoot it down when it clearly shows a Mig 29 doing so. They obviously weren't counting on being recorded.

this seems to have escalated a tad

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7548715.stm

If it escalates any further it would make an interesting scenario for a flight sim or RTS.

Crumbs. I'd just seen that on the Beeb. Someplace Operation Flashpoint modders are going fucknuts.

EDIT: Just been reading further on CNN. Very worrying. Hope things are exagerated. Still, one definitely to watch. If it is as they say, I can't believe that they invaded South Ossetia and bombed Georgia on the opening day of the Olympics. That is either deeply ignorant and unintentional or chillingly brazen.

And now off to see Wall-E for the second time, and try to forget world-o-woes for a couple of hours.

So UK diplomat for Georgia is saying that Russia "is at war with Georgia"

FFuuuuccck.

Russia must have specifically decided to wait till all eyes were at China to do this.

Jesus fuck.

I am going to enjoy this weekend, as it may be the last.

More intrigue as the President of Georgia may be a bit emotionally unstable and prone to fibbing. Advice is to take all statements both Georgia and Russia with a bag of salt. Still worrying, mind.

This does, though, have the potential to be frighteningly 'orrible.

Right, off to renew my Live membership.

EDIT - bollocks. I haven't used either of my credit cards in so long they're both deactivated. Sod. And Live won't take Maestro. Bastards.

Try telling them the world's going to end anyway. Might work.

What Pete said..

This has been on the simmer since the end of the cold war, it was going to blow up eventually.

It appears South Osseta is populated with people who consider themselves Russian anyway. It also seems that Russia are reacting to aggression from Georgia.

NATO don't seem to want anything to do with it bar some normal "stop this right now" statements, it is dreadful for the people of the region (on both sides) but I don't think any nation will be stupid enough to escalate this. War is bad for Capitalism kids!

For those who are just joining us, the story so far...

Stalin and successors shunt a load of Russians to North Georgia, thus Stalin ironically causes problems for his homeland beyond his death. Fuckin' People Up Turbo Achievement Unlocked, Stalin!

South Ossetia half and half Russian and Georgian. Over the past ten years Russia increasingly grants non-Ruskie population citizenship. South Ossetian seperatists raid Georgian villages. Georgia gets cross.

Georgia sends UAV's and small taskforces into S. Ossetia to combat seperatists. Russia funds, trains and equips seperatists.

Georgian president fatally underestimates Russia's will to absorb South Ossetia. Russia afraid of further independence and NATO membership applications from neighbouring states, due to Georgia's new found independent economic success and energy reserves.

Georgia invades/polices South Ossetia (technically Georgia's but now has defacto independence) with several divisions.

Russia claims Georgia uses massed artillery on capital (Seems plausibly true from rocket artillery footage on Beeb) and is angered by death of Russian 'peacekeepers', possibly in bombardment. Or is making that bit up. Sends in 150 tanks and thousands of men. Jet fighters attack Georgian troops.

Russia claims Georgia committing ethnic cleansing and S.Ostetia and Russia claim 1500+ dead in S. Ossetia capital. Possibly a lie. Possibly true. Regardless, irony-hypocrito-meter explodes in wake of Chechnya.

Georgian troops enter combat with Russian troops, heavy fighting reported. Both sides report low casualties, but Russia and seperatists claim high native casualties.

Russia bombs Georgian ports and nearby Georgian city, wrecking port industry and killing dozens as bombs miss army base and hit tower block complex. BBC confirms. Russia continues bombing. Georgia claims 5+ Russia jets shot down.

And that's it so far. To be honest, both sides are responsible, but I am automatically more suspicious of Russia because frankly their track record is genuinely appalling. Here's hoping a ceasefire is called, S. Ossetia is partitioned saving face for all and a wary peace settles leaving us with a pipe-o-fun of gas. Or something.

I know, not bloody likely, eh?

We need to deploy Elite Beat Agents, like now.

Except when there's oil at stake.

Luckily there are no oil pipelines in Georgia...


Oh.

Actually, I thought it was an accepted maxim that war was good for capitalism?

War is good for the military-industrial lot, and technological progress.

It's possible that peace would be even better, mind (the cosmetics industry since the world war has become worth a bajillion squillion quid in america and europe, for instance. That wouldn't be possible if we were still all at (direct) war with each other). But let's face it, we'll never know, and big business by its very nature will take a guaranteed super-profit over a risky possible super-super-profit.

So whose fault was this little scrap then? We now seem to be in the position of two naughty schoolboys pointing at each other shouting "BUT HE STARTED IT, MISS", while the Head of the School Governers stands at the side going "Mehhhhhhhhh. We won't let the aggression of big kids go unchecked. Mehhhhhhh" and, despite picking sides, does nothing.

I was very surprised to learn that Georgia only had 7 combat aircraft. As an ex-soviet country I'd assumed they would have inherited piles of kit, but it appears not. So what sort of an idiot undertakes any sort of invasion* without making arrangements to at the very least contest the control of the air, if not outright dominate it? Does no one pay any attention to history any more?

*Alright, it wasn't technically an invasion, as you can't invade your own territory (yeah, I'm looking at you, Scotland), but you know what I mean.

is what thet make

Russia has pushed from Azbekhia into Western Georgia proper.

Anyone else really worried they're going to properly invade, effect regime change and take over the pipeline? I am.

I for one am concerned about the effect this will have on house prices.

I was a little worried by Cheney's comments, though. Although I note Whitehouse spokesmen sought to backpedal off a bit from his apparent suggestion that the US would give Russia a good spanking, and clarified that Cheney merely meant that Russia deserved a good spanking, and wouldn't it be good if they got one.

I'm sure you could a bargin price on a house in Gori

Setting computer games in 'real wars' or 'proposed future wars' always leaves a lot of distaste in my mouth, as they aren't helping the world get better (Aside: this shows how good CoD4 is - considering I got past all that hippy shit).

But case in point. Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon. Released in 2001 what's the plot?

In April 2008 Russia starts supporting the rebel factions in Georgia. Not unlike the start of this thread where in april 2008 we had the first evidence of Russia supporting the Georgian rebel factions.

Then in August 2008...



If I had written the plot to the game I would be feeling a bit queazy right now.

In fairness, Tom Clancy's writing have pretty much covered EVERY permutation, so one of them had to have been correct.

I quite liked Tom Clancys books. Until I realised that he spent 3000* pages setting up a highly improbable wargames scenario that USA! USA! USA! could win in about three minutes.

Hunt for Red October is awesome stuff though.

*Felt like it.

Russians closing on Georgian capital

And this after the Russians said "no, we've stopped military operations and have not crossed the borders of South Ossettia".

I'm amazed* that a country can invade another country on our doorstep and there's nothing that anyone can or will do about it.

*No... wait... the other one.

Yeah, we've never invaded another nation....

Well, not in the past 50 years without being invited to, Duds.

Oh, wait. Iraq and Afghanistan. Sorry. Were they nations?

They're also not on our doorstep. And, of course, their neighbours hated them so it doesn't count. Sort of like Belgium in WW2.

Yeah, and it's not like we were cynically trying to annexe a foreign country in order to secure dwindling natural resources.

True, I totally agree with you. Amusingly that phrase there pans out exactly with my thought process at the time. I was genuinely scratching my head to try and remember.

Looks like Russia is going to assault the Georgian capital, conduct regime change and make sure that its the breakaway regions that do it - thus trying to add a tint of internal dispute and make it look like they're not invading bastards. The new regime, while still ostensibly Georgian, will of course be pro-Putin. The sad thing is that Russia knows that the world figures it to be a charade, but they won't care anyway.

For what its worth, reports seems to substantiate some of the claims of Georgian tanks and troops firing indiscrimately at Ostetian civs's houses. But does it justify invasion?

The Scouse and Brummies invade the South West every year without consent.

I'm thinking of applying for a Russian passport next year with the hope they can sort it out. If we can annex the Cotswolds at the same time, all the better

And of course this will encourager les autres in the former Warsaw Pact area.

"Thinking about getting chummy with NATO are you? Or hosting a US missile defense shield base, even? Well, tell you what, why don't you have a look at what happened to Georgia, and have a think about it, eh Comrade?"



Aboslutely. I'm puzzled as to why Russia is even bothering to maintain any pretence of huminatarian motivations. Even if Putin came out on the tellybox shouting "HAHAHAHA we're going to create a new Warsaw Pact by force! And you can't stop us! HAHAHAH!" we'd still just be shrugging. Unless, of course, they do anything which directly threatens our fuel supplies. Then I can see some serious tutting going on at the EU. The US won't care, of course, as they don't get much, if any, of their fuel via Eastern Europe.



Indeed. Especially invasion that includes indiscriminate bombing of Georgian civilian areas.