Brexit Predictions

Grim... · **Posted:** Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:35

52% Leave
66% turnout

markg · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 16639

56% Remain
No idea on turnout. 60%

Kern · **Posted:** Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:36

Remain: 53 %
Turnout: 74 %

Mimi · **Joined:** 27th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 26080

56% remain.

67% turnout.

MaliA · **Posted:** Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:41

53% Leave
65% Turnout

Morte · **Posted:** Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:41

50 / 50 - Because God hates us

59% Turnout

Zardoz · **Posted:** Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:43

60% Remain

65% Turnout

Mr Russell · **Joined:** 6th Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 12334

54% Remain.
38% turnout.

TheVision · **Posted:** Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:46

55% remain
69% turnout

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49244

52% remain
70% turnout

GazChap · **Posted:** Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:53

54% Remain
74% turnout

Malc · **Posted:** Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:56

50.5% Remain
72% Turnout

Cavey · **Posted:** Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:56

55% remain
82% turnout

Mimi · **Joined:** 27th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 26080

Morte wrote:

50 / 50 - Because God hates us

59% Turnout

What's the margin of error needed before its declared a draw? How many votes would need to be in it, and then what would the process be?

Cavey · **Posted:** Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:59

I assume it's 50% +1 vote = win

ApplePieOfDestiny · **Joined:** 17th Dec, 2008 **Posts:** 8293

55% Remain
61% Turnout

DavPaz · **Joined:** 27th Jun, 2008 **Posts:** 38657

85% Leave

20% Turnout

Because I hate Europe. And foreigners. And functional economies. And common sense.

KovacsC · **Posted:** Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:10

53% remain

78 turnout

myp · **Posted:** Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:17

53.5% remain
69% turnout

myp · **Posted:** Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:18

KovacsC wrote:

53% remain

78 turnout

Sample size too small - rerun referendum in September.

Mimi · **Joined:** 27th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 26080

Cavey wrote:

I assume it's 50% +1 vote = win

No, there must surely be some kind of buffer of error, or a single vote miscounted could change the future of the entire uk. Surely.

Kern · **Posted:** Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:26

As far as I can remember, there's no scope for a national recount but individual polling areas can recount in case of error.

Mimi · **Joined:** 27th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 26080

Actually, I guess it can be the way Cavey has suggested as it is only an advisory vote.

Jem · **Posted:** Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:36

57% leave
69% turnout

Curiosity · **Posted:** Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:43

52% leave
44% turnout

Malc · **Posted:** Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:58

I was reading (it may have been a link from here) that there is nothing in the bill to decide what to do if the teams are tied! I guess it goes the way of Cricket Test series, and the holder retains the title? So 50/50 = remain?

LewieP · **Joined:** 29th Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 7600

I'm guessing it'll be a remain result by a small margin.

I am also guess that Farage will stick around like a bad smell that won't go away.

In the result of a Leave vote, Boris Johnson will be the leader of the Tory party come next election.

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32624

Predictions of 70-85% turnout in this thread seem like madness to me. I don't think it'll be anything like that high.

Mimi · **Joined:** 27th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 26080

I think it will be a higher than normal turnout. I think this has got people fired up, and early turnout was the highest we've seen here.

Goddess Jasmine · **Posted:** Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:12

Mimi wrote:

I think it will be a higher than normal turnout. I think this has got people fired up, and early turnout was the highest we've seen here.

Although I don't know what the usual turnout is, so I'll go with 65%

I think we will get remain, if only because a lot of the people that I know that want out are probably too lazy to vote anyway.

It will be a close call, 52% remain maybe?

Mimi · **Joined:** 27th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 26080

The last few general elections have sat between 60-65%

I think local elections are usually 40-45%

Goddess Jasmine · **Posted:** Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:15

Mimi wrote:

The last few general elections have sat between 60-65%

Thanks Meems, that gives the figures some context.

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49244

And referendums are historically higher turnouts than elections, I believe.

DavPaz · **Joined:** 27th Jun, 2008 **Posts:** 38657

Cras wrote:

And referenda are historically higher turnouts than elections, I believe.

FTFY

DavPaz · **Joined:** 27th Jun, 2008 **Posts:** 38657

Cras wrote:

And referenda are historically higher turnouts than elections, I believe.

FTFY

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49244

https://twitter.com/DavidAllenGreen/sta ... 9090793472

On the eve of the referendum day itself, heartening to see 'referendums' taking a firm lead over the dreadful and incorrect 'referenda'.
— David Allen Green (@davidallengreen) June 22, 2016

Quote:

On the eve of the referendum day itself, heartening to see 'referendums' taking a firm lead over the dreadful and incorrect 'referenda'.

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49244

Actually I prefer this one

https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidAllenGr ... 5332707329

'Referenda' is correct in neither Latin nor English. Only used by those who want to sound more educated than they are. #TeamReferendums
— David Allen Green (@davidallengreen) June 22, 2016

Quote:

'Referenda' is correct in neither Latin nor English. Only used by those who want to sound more educated than they are. #TeamReferendums

DavPaz · **Joined:** 27th Jun, 2008 **Posts:** 38657

Cras wrote:

https://twitter.com/DavidAllenGreen/status/745519369090793472

Ha. Lawyered.

MaliA · **Posted:** Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:39

This is how we lost the empire.

DavPaz · **Joined:** 27th Jun, 2008 **Posts:** 38657

Cras wrote:

Actually I prefer this one

https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidAllenGr ... 5332707329

'Referenda' is correct in neither Latin nor English. Only used by those who want to sound more educated than they are. #TeamReferendums
— David Allen Green (@davidallengreen) June 22, 2016

Quote:

'Referenda' is correct in neither Latin nor English. Only used by those who want to sound more educated than they are. #TeamReferendums

Edumacated? Moi?

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49244

However I appear to be completely wrong about previous turnout numbers.

Mr Russell · **Joined:** 6th Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 12334

Why is it not referenda?
Does it not follow the same etymology as datum/data?

MaliA · **Posted:** Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:42

Because it is a gerund as you will know from your school days.

Doctor Glyndwr · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 32624

Cras wrote:

And referendums are historically higher turnouts than elections, I believe.

AV was 42%, ECM was 65%, and those are the only two other UK-wide referendums ever. Scottish Independence was 85%, but Welsh devolution was 50% (1997) and 36% (2011). The referendum to create a London mayor was 35%, the referendum on devolving power to the NE of England was 48%.

"Believe."

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49244

Yeah, I corrected myself on that.

Mr Russell · **Joined:** 6th Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 12334

MaliA wrote:

Because it is a gerund as you will know from your school days.

Quote:

The Gerund
Recognize a gerund when you see one.
Every gerund, without exception, ends in ing. Gerunds are not, however, all that easy to identify. The problem is that all present participles also end in ing.

Referending?

Cras · **Joined:** 30th Mar, 2008 **Posts:** 49244

I hope we're all referending today!

Mr Russell · **Joined:** 6th Apr, 2008 **Posts:** 12334

I referendinged.

DavPaz · **Joined:** 27th Jun, 2008 **Posts:** 38657

MaliA wrote:

Because it is a gerund as you will know from your school days.

I guess your school was better than mine, as I have no idea what a gerund is.

DavPaz · **Joined:** 27th Jun, 2008 **Posts:** 38657

"Gerund-er the brolly, or you'll get wet!"

Be Excellent To Each Other

Brexit Predictions
Just for fun, like

Who is online

Be Excellent To Each Other

Brexit Predictions Just for fun, like

Who is online

Brexit Predictions
Just for fun, like