Be Excellent To Each Other

Flabber has been ghasted.

Jesus H Christ.

Holy shit the exit polls!

Ok, the Beeb's virtual Commons is creepy.

Watch Channel 4, Kern!

And yes, holy fucking christ. WHAT IS WRONG WITH PEOPLE IN THIS COUNTRY.

316 for the Tories! Fuck me, cause to hope!

Bizarre that the tories are still fucked, despite outperforming everything that anyone even contemplated if that exit poll is correct. Election Forecast never had them that high.

If that is true, labour and the SNP have fucked each other right over.

This is making me deeply deeply unhappy. It's basically back to two party politics in England/Wales.

And the Tories and SNP have eaten the LDs.

After 5 years of Tory/UKIP vote splitting being 'the issue'.

Gove: "an unprecedented vote of confidence in David Cameron's government" it's still less than a majority, you berk.

No. 239 Lab + 58 SNP is 297, still a good chunk short of the Con 316 prediction.

I seem to recall a clever chap of this shire suggesting that Cameron had played a blinder on the Scottish independence vote. It looks like he was even cleverer than we thought.

basically, all the people who didn't vote for clegg because of the graduate tax are to blame.

huh?

They can't have fucked each other because even if SNP hadn't taken seats off Labour Labour would still be well short of the cons.

Suddenly some pretty major plans that I had for tomorrow are going right off the boil.

Are you not having to close down some tax dodges now?

Miliband frankly is toast if that poll is correct. Losing the whole of Scotland?!

And Clegg. Poor poor Clegg.

But if they hadn't split the vote so much, a large labour could have got over the line with the lib dems and others.

Post independence vote that was always, always going to happen. Chips have a lot of power.



This. Very much this. It is so thoroughly depressing.

No, given that libs only have 10.

Was meeting a recruitment pimp for a 'chat about my future'.

But yes, we've lost significant potential income if the Tories win

Suppose we might as well start preparing for the next Scottish referendum then.

10 Lib Dem seats would seal a coalition to put the Tories over the line. They have no reason not to and if a party of only 10 seats can have influence in government they'd going to take it.

Wow, this is mad. But exit polls have been wrong before. This one might be a far overestimation too.

Where's Cavey? I imagine his head has exploded off his shoulders.

Am I the only guy watching BBC1?

I'm currently watching Paddy Ashdown say he'll eat his hat if the exit poll is correct.

And others... Green, plaid, etc...

Can Cameron push for a minority government with promises, rather than a formal coalition?

Same. I'd have stayed with C4 if the exit poll was as predicted previously. Now I want proper news.

A very hoarse Nick Robinson is being very punchy and aggressive in his commentary. I do love old Dimbles, he's so top.

Harman seems to be accepting that the Exit poll is correct.

He could form a minority government with 316, but would then have to fight off a no confidence vote.

How accurate were the exit polls in 2010?

I really need Galloway to get ridden out in a rail now.

Shitfucks

Robinson has Lung Cancer. I'm amazed he's still broadcasting.

A no confidence vote in favour of what? LabNP can't do fuck all with these numbers.

Gotcha.

Really? Sweet jesus, I had no idea. He's not a smoker is he?

answer my own question - in 2010 they were very accurate.

But 140 polling stations with 22000 being surveyed is probably not enough to get any level of accuracy in this particular election.

It wouldn't matter. Two lost no confidence votes (which could happen in the course of a week) and it's another election.

Harman is very salty given the only thing she has to say is that the ConLib might not have a majority, but that's not even true with the numbers on the table.

Aye

You'll be overjoyed that the CyberNats trolled him over it.

(Trolling story not in that article)

Poor bugger. I can't say I'm that keen on him but lung cancer is a right fucker to have to deal with.

that is genuinely shocking if they resemble the truth.

Not just shy Tory voters, but massive, massive swathes of polled people pretending to vote Labour.

Watching bbc too (sky pulsing c4)

Absolutely stunned by the exit poll!

They can't possibly resemble the truth. There are so many close seats that such a poll is going to miss out a lot of the nuance.

YouGov exit poll is very different CON 284 MPs, LAB 263, LIBS 31, SNP 48, UKIP 2, PLAID 3, GREEN 1 (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general ... -live.html)

Sampling is hard, and the rise of minority parties makes it far harder because we can have three-way marginal seats and no meaningful historical patterns to analyse. One of the BBC pollsters [url="http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/what-exit-poll-general-election-9205754"]said today[/url] that they are highly untrustworthy this time.

He'll only be 7 promised votes short of winning that vote though, which shouldn't be too tricky to get from the dup and UKIP.

Is Bradford riding Galloway out on a rail?

If that YouGov one is right then Lib/Lab coalition could be in the offing, with SNP having to vote with them.