Be Excellent To Each Other

There have been various riots in China in recent years, especially in the more rural areas. The increasing divisions between rich and poor, and the amount of corruption and lack of legal protection, mean that it's a tinderbox waiting to explode. And be brutally repressed - the Communist Party aren't exactly known for being able to accept criticism. I think the most likely cause of crisis, however, would be when the good times for the rising middle class come to an end and they find themselves without a suitable vent for the frustration with the regime. People will forgive a lot when they'll doing well.

Relatedly, the Guardian is reporting that South Korea have been dropping flyers about the Middle Eastern uprisings into North Korea.

Violence continues on the streets of Tripoli.
Meanwhile, Libyan diplomats continue to resign, including the entire UN mission in Geneva.

Egyptian protestors were reportedly broken up in an excessively violent manner yesterday. The military council has apologised and said that the arrested will be released. People were furious and alarmed yesterday, but seem to have calmed somewhat since. Looks like it may have been a mistake rather than a deliberate sea change.

Protests in Yemen continue.

Silly picture here (safe for work, unless you're in Pyongyang).

Libya situation seems to be continuing - lines are more tightly drawn and Gaddafi seems determined to end with a civil war. Guns are being given out to his supporters. Tripoli is packed tight with tanks. Queen Deidranna has reportedly slapped Elliot seven times.

"ELLIOT!"

Y'know, I've only played a demo of Jagged Alliance 2, and that yonks ago. Worth getting?

And that picture's superb.

Jagged Alliance 2 is worth getting at least three or four times. Lots of people will tell you that you must get the v1.13 (I think) mod, but they are silly and wrong. Wear out the game itself first - it's brilliant and far less fiddly without the mods. Really doesn't need them.

However, having said that, I'm not saying that once you've worn out the game, you shouldn't play it with the mod. It makes massive changes to the game and makes it extremely easy to modify to your own tastes, and is very highly rated. It's just not necessary and best saved until you'll really appreciate it.

Anyway yeah, get JA2. I bought it on GOG, but it's probably available elsewhere, too. Fantastic game. Bloody hard though, especially at the start. Pro tip: flank like a motherfucker. You'll never win a stand up fight in the opening act because your equipment is shite.

Mad bastard Gadaffi gave an interview to the BBC claiming that no-one is protesting against him. Delusional cunt.

Protests have spread to Oman (NY Times). The Sultan has apparently sent out agents to negotiate with the protesters, and has also raised unemployment benefits.

In other news, interesting piece in the New York Times about the Chinese regime's jitters.

Clashes in Iran, protests in Jordan and Oman.
Fighting continues in Libya.
Libya have also been thrown off the UN Human Rights Council, although as that body also contains such stout defenders of the rights of man as Saudi Arabia and China, I doubt that means much.

China have just revoked the 'Freedom of the Press' regulations that they put in place before the Beijing Olympics. Rather suddenly and without warning.

Gaddaffi speaking again.

Guardian stream:

Interesting. Must related to how loads of foreign journalists showed up at a non-existent protest, so the authorities decided to rough them up instead. ( http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12608428 )

Someone I know that does concrete commented on Sunday that his Omani contract was looking doubtful.

The Bugle was very funny as regards Libya, I thought, this week.

Libyan air force attacking Brega, an oil port.

I just hope Libya doesn't turn into a Sierra Leone type civil war with two sides fighting over the one natural resource and screwing the poor bloke on the ground in the process. The Libyan economy seems to be so utterly dependent on hydrocarbons that I doubt there is anything else worth fighting over.

I know that right now all eyes are on Libya (and quite understandably so), but events in Egypt continue to be really quite fascinating, with the curious relationship between the police, army and protestors continues, and for the most part it looks like the police are not doing well out of it.

I ought to catch up on it all this weekend. Rallies and protests continue daily in Cairo, and still on a large scale every Friday. Clashes have occurred with the police in Alexandria (and I think elsewhere), with protestors trying to stop police from allegedly destroying incriminating documents in state security buildings and the police opening fire, but the army have backed the protestors, and the damage has reportedly been relatively small. Leading figures from the information ministry and state tv were arrested last week and are being investigated for corruption, as well as several business types with major links to the NDP, Mubarak's party.

This last point is very interesting as it ties in with what I've read about the military in general in Egypt - it is a fairly liberal outfit with more of an interest in business and economy than might be expected, which means a big issue for them is doing away with the corruption that stifled the economy there for so long. The potential for corruption obviously remains, but if the military's awareness of corruption and will to prosecute it continue and is passed on to the next government, the country's economic prospects could be a lot brighter than the current instability would suggest.

The widely hated Ahmad Shafiq stepped down as prime minister and has been replaced by Essam Sharaf, a former transport minister (I think). He is rather popular with the people, and apparently well received by opposition parties and the military council, and has now been charged with forming a new cabinet.

It looks like genuine progress is being made and the protestors are showing no sign of letting up when it comes to their political demands. Still very early yet, obviously, but while much more complicated and less dramatic, the aftermath of last month's incredible scenes is just as fascinating.

With that said, however, I'm reading some troubling accounts of 'thousands' of militant muslims attacking coptic churches in Helwan (which is pressed directly up against Cairo). Sounds genuine, but I don't suppose details will come out until tomorrow.


Broader than just Egypt, but this look at the sociopolitical situation in the Middle East and prevailing attitudes to it here is an excellent bit of editorial.

Massive protests occuring in Yemen. It looks like the people there are getting to the state Cairo was at two months ago. Large protests also in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Attacks on coptic christians earlier in the week have been essentially condemned by protestors in Egypt. It appears to be a fringe clash, but I need to do more reading about it to get a better picture.

The Arab League is meeting tomorrow to discuss the situation in Libya. Gaddafi's forces are reportedly putting a lot of pressure on the rebels, shelling and rocketing a number of their cities. I can't imagine they'll last very long without outside support or more defectors from the military, but political opinion seems to be turning against Gaddafi, even if nobody's willing to do anything. The Libyan air force in particular is surprisingly powerful, which is probably a major factor. I think only Egypt and Israel are really in a position to challenge it there, however I very much doubt Israel will get involved (officially, anyway), and I don't think Egypt has any realistic choice but to keep to itself for a few months. Anyone outside the region would probably end up doing more harm than good if they intervened directly, and the UN have yet to pass a resolution to remove their thumb from their arse. So. I think a lot hinges on the Arab League, and the rest on whatever unofficial support is being given to the rebels by whoever feels the need.

Interestingly, France were the first nation to officially recognise the Libyan rebels earlier this week.

Thanks for the update. Been very tricky to keep on top of everything.

Yemeni police open fire on protestors in Sanaa. Bahrain also cracks down using less lethal weapons, with a video of police shooting a flinching protestor at point blank range reaching the news. Twice.

Gaddafi's forces have reportedly retaken oil-town Brega, and are reporting successes against the rebels across the country. The Arab League endorsed a No-Fly zone, however China and Russia are still blocking anything that comes up at the UN.

The Ivory Coast is also going through some turbulence over its disputed leadership. Not sure of the details, but it sounds like things are flaring up.

Gas used against Yemeni protestors may have been nerve gas.

Waiting for more information on this. People are claiming it as "confirmed", but that's a stretch, given that this was three days ago. They appear to have been using rooftop snipers, however. The government are claiming these are private citizens defending their property. Make of that what you will.

Saudi troops have entered Bahrain to support the government

This is pretty major.

Crap. That's a ghastly development.

No doubt the west will be as angry with the Saudis as they have been with Gadaffi and, oh, hang on.

3 Month state of emergency ??!! WTF !

Egypt: State Security Force to be dissolved. Referendum on the 19th on a new constitution, which is a mixed bag of good things like a two-term limit on the presidency and the removal of NDP approval requirement for new political parties. Many people are unhappy and say that these changes will not limit the president's power enough, nor represent the people - they are demanding an entirely new constitution, not mere amendments. I believe there are 9 proposed amendments in total.

Article 75 is particularly weird - the President (strongly implied to be male) must not only be Egyptian, but must not be married to a woman who is not Egyptian. There is also some concern that with elections in 6 months, new parties will not have enough time to form and campaign, leaving the NDP and Brotherhood with a massive advantage.


Tens of thousands protesting in Gaza, reportedly wishing for Hamas and Fatah to unite.

More violence in Bahrain as police crack down on protestors. It's unclear who is instigating it, as many are reportedly in plainclothes.

Libya: Rebels pushed back. Some advisors are saying that Gaddafi will be unable to stretch to Tobruk without leaving itself very vulnerable to counter attack. Some are suggesting the rebels melt away and form a guerilla insurgency, but I don't know how likely this is - they're mostly ordinary people, not soldiers, and their experience of war so far has largely been of defeat.

NATO refuses to act without UN Security Council resolution. G8 leaders fail to agree on a no-fly zone. Frankly, I doubt a no-fly zone would make any difference now anyway - the rebels are being shelled with artillery and hit with tanks just as much as they are by jets. It's not looking good at all, and the outside world is largely inactive.

Libyan rebels have managed to arrest four men who they claim murdered Al Jazeera journalist Ali Hassan Al Jaber on Saturday. Gaddafi is allegedly targeting journalists and key rebels with assassins, which nobody's been able to verify, partly because journalists are having trouble getting anywhere. Fun times.

Edit: Looks like Gaddafi's forces are closing in on the heart of the rebels' territory, Benghazi:

Gaddafi is a lunatic. This weekend has the potential to be horrible...
He is making a speech and claiming the liberation of Benghazi is about to take place. He is telling people there to throw down their arms and welcome him. His soldiers will go house to house and anyone found with a weapon will be considered an enemy.

Meanwhile, we finally get movement from the West today. UN meeting took place to debate a resolution on a no fly zone supported by the majority of Arab states. Meetig adjourned and vote is taking place about 11pm our time. Capital cities are being consulted to decide how to vote. Hopefully China and Russia will abstain but who knows. Even if it gets passed who knows how long it will take for action to be taken.

Crowds cheer and set off fireworks in Benghazi as the UN passes a resolution to establish a no fly zone. It is being reported that airstrikes could begin as soon as tomorrow but certainly likely in the next few days.

Too little, too late, I'd wager. The air force would only be of limited use in an urban streetcrawl, and the best the rebels can hope for is to hold on to Benghazi and turn it into a quagmire too costly for the army to fight in.

For all the posturing and last-minute resolutions, I suspect our governments know all too well that had the rebels topped Gaddafi, whatever replaced him would not have been as willing to deal with us. That's even more true now.

Still, let's hope the Libyans manage to pull it off somehow.

Looks like the resolution went through. No-Fly zone and "all necessary measures" short of invasion to protect civilians and civilian-populated cities. Looks like I was mistaken - this is more than just a "stop strafing protestors, you dicks" move, and could authorise counter-airstrikes by UN members like France and the UK. I fear a stalemate though, to be honest, unless the suppression of Gaddafi's forces is enough to coax an ever bigger uprising out of the people.

Breakdown of the votes is rather curious. 9 were needed to pass it:



Interesting responses, there. Nigeria for and Germany abstaining strike me as a little surprising. Also the US to some extent, given their historic relationship with Libya, but I suppose they can't afford to look indifferent.

Be interesting to see what gets done now. My hugely limited military analysis suggests that only the Americans could really do it alone, with us and the French pitching in. I can see it turning into more than just anti-air though - no doubt Libya has radar and air defences that will be attacked as well, although God knows if we'll attack the ground forces, which appear to consist largely of Toyota Land Cruisers with machine guns attached, going by the TV.

They're probably hoping the threat will make him stop.

Of course, we're talking about Old Melty, who's likely going to go even more mental.

He just called the Rest of The World "agressive" after threatening a final strike against rebels.

Has he even tried to talk to them yet?

How can he? They don't exist remember. And if they did they'd be too drug-addled from Al-Queda provided hallucinogens.

In principle, I'm inclined to think it's good that the UN are doing something in Libya. Not sure whether it's way too late to be effective, or what the consequences might be, but the recent international inaction has been shameful. Hearing little about the Saudis moving into Bahrain or Iran's trepidation about such a move, alas.

I fear that was the price of getting something done in Libya. Our resolute turning of backs in the direction of Bahrain.

Depressing, but probably a fair assessment of the backroom deals.

Relatedly, AJ now reporting 30 protesters killed in Yemen.

Yeah, wouldn't surprise me if the Saudis only went in after making damn sure they could do so without comment from us. It's only about 1,000 troops (and 500 UAE), last I heard, so not a full on invasion, but even so. Their government may be arseholes, but they're not stupid or crazy like some of their neighbours.

It's weird actually being behind a military action by our government for once. It may lead to even more trouble of course, but I think in the circumstances it's a lesser evil than sitting idly by while these people are murdered with our weapons, while the entire middle east adds to the mountain of reasons to despise us. I just hope that it spurs the Libyans themselves on, rather than meaning that more intervention will be needed - the last thing anyone wants is for us pissing around in yet another foreign country.

And yeah, Gaddafi is batshit mental, so scaring him may not work. Scaring his military, on the other hand, might be a viable strategy.

It's worked. Appears he's just declared an immediate ceasefire.

The thing with Gadaffi is he's fucking nuts but he's not stupid. Still I'm hopeful that this resolution will have emboldened opponents within his own regime enough that will all start to fall apart around his ears.

I'd be interested to see just how ceasefirey that ceasefire is. I'd bet the planes and helicopters and artillery stop, so that nothing draws attention, but plenty of close-up fighting goes on, where air strikes would be much harder without risking civilian casualties.

Interesting piece on the 'History News Network] site detailing the times Libya (or its predecessors) have been bombed from the air before. The first was in 1911.

Referendum day in Egypt! Here's a picture of the line in Mokattam in Cairo at 8:15am.

What they are voting on.

Almost two months since it all kicked off. Not bad. Polls earlier in the week indicated that about 60% of people were planning to vote no. Most opposing parties and independent speakers have been vocally against the amendments, saying that a new constitution should be drafted (and criticising some of the amendments themselves, particularly article 75). The Muslim Brotherhood have been vocal supporters of the amendments and pushing for a Yes vote, [editorial] arguably because they're the most widely known and established opposition party so would benefit from a faster turnaround that would give new opposition groups less time to organise.[/editorial] Of course, what the people decide to do en masse will trump either movement's aims.

Turnout appears to be high - this is the first time that many people have had a meaningful vote on anything, and there's been reportedly very little interference or harassment, at least in the cities.

Edit: Although significant political figure Mohamed El Baradei reports that he went to vote with his family and was attacked by thugs - Ein Pik. A few people are commenting on the ensuing scene, with military police called out to calm things down. Appears nobody was injured, but lots of aggression and threats, and one foreign woman was chased 'down the street' (the MP helped her out though).

Somewhat relatedly, a journalist documents his encounter with a Hamas cop at a demonstration in Gaza:

Meanwhile, world leaders (including Germany's Merkel, though they're not expected to participate in any subsequent action) are already meeting to discuss further intervention in Libya. Gaddafi's forces have reportedly continued to attack rebels despite their own announcement of a ceasefire, so it seems that some think the arms shipments and air support being sent may not be enough. I am personally disinclined to agree this early, but I'd imagine that members of the arab league will make the case for caution. I would hope that given time and a little protection, the Libyans themselves may render all this moot.

Germany, India and Brazil are apparently supportive of the principle of a no fly zone and possibly further support of the Libyan rebels, however they abstained from the vote and may abstain from further action because they are suspicious of Brit/French motives and reluctant to authorise them to fuck around more in the region. This sounds quite plausible to me, and would explain their actions better than "they just don't give a shit".

Sarkozy is reportedly the leading proponent of further action, which is quite interesting, but perhaps not surprising.

I'm with the UN on this one, I'm sure they held back hoping that we would see a repeat of Egypt but it's got to the point where millions could, and may very well be, slaughtered by a crazy man with god knows what weapons. It seem to me that the comparisons I have been reading (in the press) between this and Iraq is very unfair, the only similarities are that the people involved have dark skin.
An invasion would very much be like Afghanistan where the western troops had the overwhelming support of the people (it was prety much textbook), The aftermath would be radically different politically but I would expect to see the military helping to get the basic infrastructure such as power and communications up (as they did in Afghanistan) for quite some time after.

I would also expect (stating the obvious) the new rebel government to remember exactly who it was who helped them out now when it comes to doing oil/arms deals later.

Things seem to be really kicking off. The French have blown up several tanks outside Benghazi, and an opposition jet was shot down. Al Jazeera are airing footage that looks like the pilot was killed as he ejected very close to the ground and the jet was pretty much nosediving. Gaddafi continues to shell the town, and althought UN counter-attack may do some damage, I fear that they're not going to back down easily.

Hopefully it's too early to tell, though. Once the UN show their strength and Gaddafi's military have time to assess their options, let's hope they back down.

I'd agree that the UN are essentially doing the right thing here, though. They're lucky they got there just in time though, quite apart from the damage to the Libyans, we'd have been in far worse diplomatic trouble if we'd let the rebels die out. It seems that most commentators are in favour of at leas some UN intervention, too, and of course the Arab League pretty much gave it the go ahead - the people on the ground seem to agree, too. I'm just a little hesitant to trust that we'll know where to draw the line. And yeah, anyone who seriously compares this to our last invasion of Iraq in all but the most basic way is either a liar or a monumentally ignorant fool.

Syria is also experiencing protests, incidentally, with police using tear gas on mourners at a funeral. Erk. Doesn't appear that they're as major as in other countries yet. Bahrain and Yemen also continue to protest.

Edit: Worth mentioning that the US were also somewhat reluctant about this and are largely letting France lead the way, while being sure to keep the arabic nations on board. Also Canada are quite involved, but uncredited as usual. Germany and Turkey (!) seem to be wavering between keeping their distance and helping out. I really need to read up more on Turkey (note to self: read that Turkish bloke's thesis).

110 Missiles !! Taking out anti-aircraft locations

I dare any broadcasters reading to use this as a "computer reconstruction":

A pretty thorough roundup of today's events in Egypt from AJE's Evan Hill.



I suspect the 'yes' votes will be in the majority, to be honest. There just seems to be more organisation and resources behind the people pushing for that, and an ignorant or borderline voter would probably be more likely to vote for the amendments than against. Not that voting for them means you're ignorant, obv. - there are reasonable cases for supporting them, regardless of my opinion. Still, we'll see.

Egypt's constitutional changes have been approved, with a 77% 'yes' vote. Turnout was 41%, far higher than previous parliamentary elections, which had a turnout of 25%.

I'd imagine this will mean we'll see full presidential elections later this year, at which the NDP and Muslim Brotherhood will have a massive advantage. Unless someone organises an effective opposition party very quickly, It could be a two-horse race.

Bit disappointing, but that's democracy for you.

I wouldn't trust those figures in the slightest, I suspect the turn out was something like 80% and the real yes vote count was 99%. Secret police will be sitting about getting drunk and bitching about the good old days when you could cheat in an election properly.