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Ripples across the world
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Author:  MaliA [ Wed Jan 26, 2011 8:16 ]
Post subject:  Ripples across the world

So, Tunisians began grumbling amongst themselves from about December, and culminated in chucking out the leader President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, because, frankly, fuck him and the policy of living under the cosh of restricted rights to have a slow but steady economic growth. "Interesting", I thought to myself, "We could witness a major sea change across all of North Africa".

Sure enough, protests in Egypt have left three people dead, people protesting about the government. Unsurprisingly, they are pissed off with President Hosni Mubarak, who doesn't really do being told he's doing shit wrong.

This has also now rippled out to Morocco, Jordan, Algeria and Libya. Dissent in the ultimate country is exceedingly rare, especially as you don't really talk down to the Colonel; Algeria has always been a bit hatstand since the early 1990s; Jordan is run by a ruling family as does Morocco.

The common theme here is: Shitty government quashing dissent with an iron fist; Opulent ruling class tramping over the proletariat; rising prices for food and fuels; and fuck autocracies.

The interesting bit, for the future is:

What will replace these autocracies?

Author:  DavPaz [ Wed Jan 26, 2011 8:20 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

So it's the French/American revolutions again, basically. The more democracy the better as far as I'm concerned. Let's hope that some chancer general doesn't get an idea to build a north African empire though, eh?

Author:  MaliA [ Wed Jan 26, 2011 8:20 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

DavPaz wrote:
So it's the French/American revolutions again, basically. The more democracy the better as far as I'm concerned. Let's hope that some chancer general doesn't get an idea to build a north African empire though, eh?


<whistles innocently and slides suitcase back under bed>

I'm still pissed off with the American Revolution. Fucking cheats.

Author:  Trooper [ Wed Jan 26, 2011 10:06 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

MaliA wrote:
I'm still pissed off with the American Revolution. Fucking cheats.


How so? We won.

Sure they call themselves Americans these days, but that doesn't change where they came from :D

Author:  Kern [ Wed Jan 26, 2011 10:45 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

I'd like to think that the shitty regimes are on their last legs. The main fear is that they don't get replaced by a new shitty regime.

EDIT And that's a rather non-helpful reply but I'm not up to speed on the intricacies of African politics.

Author:  Kern [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 9:03 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Protest in Egypt are still going on. I guess it's a question of who will blink first - there has to be a moment when those surrounding the regime have to decide whether it's worth supporting Mubarak or not. Christmas in Romania in 1989 is probably at the back of everyone's minds.

NY Times saying Yemen* is looking turbulent (well, more so than normal) too, now


*(Is it 'The Yemen', or 'Yemen'?)

Author:  DavPaz [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 9:05 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

So, they've cut off the Internet in Egypt then?

Author:  Kern [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 9:14 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Did a quick test and I can't access the Cairo airport website (http://www.cairo-airport.com/)

One website does not a blackout make, but that's the kind of site you'd expect to be able to access.

Author:  DavPaz [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 9:21 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

It's all over Reddit (not exactly Reuters, I know)

http://imgur.com/JLAGz

Author:  MaliA [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 11:37 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Image

Author:  Kern [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 11:44 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

I would really like to think that my friend who's sunning himself on the Sinai at the moment has headed straight to Cairo to observe it all. Probably because I'm still annoyed at being way too young to appreciate or understand the events of 1989, let alone head over there to watch it all. :)

Seriously, I'm pretty sure he's keeping well and switched on enough not to take unnecessary risks. He's not popped up on sinister Facebook in the last 24 hours however.

Author:  Cras [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 11:50 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Kern wrote:
He's not popped up on sinister Facebook in the last 24 hours however.


No-one in Egypt will have. It very much has cut itself off from the wider internet.

Author:  Kern [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 11:52 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Aye - very much how I knew the reports weren't being exaggerated :)

Author:  MaliA [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 11:55 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Kern wrote:
Aye - very much how I knew the reports weren't being exaggerated :)


I'm sure he's aware that in a riot, it's better to fight the police than the crowd, no?

Author:  Grim... [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 13:45 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

MaliA wrote:
Image

\
"Brian! We haven't seen you in ages!"
"Boooooys!"

Author:  Malc [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 14:19 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

That's how I used to play British Bulldog, however, the others very rarely carried riot sheilds and batons!

Malc

Author:  Kern [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 16:51 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Egyptian curfew about to start, according to BBC & Guardian. Mubarak has asked the army to enforce it. Looks like it's going to be a turbulent few hours.

Author:  CraigGrannell [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 16:59 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

MaliA wrote:
Image

That's a very odd photo. Hugely sad, because you know that guy was probably beaten to a pulp shortly afterwards, but hopeful in that maybe the people can pull this off. Still, having read the report of the Guardian journo who was 'arrested', it strikes me that there's going to be a lot more bloodshed in Egypt before this is over. And a Soviet-era domino effect is clearly happening.

Author:  Kern [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 21:01 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

I'm currently watching the BBC News feed. Fascinating times, but I'm wondering if the military will turn on the public, or if they'll give Mubarak the shove.

Author:  MrChris [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 21:05 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Grim... wrote:
MaliA wrote:
Image

\
"STAAGE DIIIIIIVE!!!"

FTFY.

The worry with Egypt is that the MB will piggy back on this and end up filling whatever vacuum is left if (and given the security apparatus and extensive practice the guy's had at staying in power, it's a big fucking if) Mubarak is ousted/ends up in an unmarked grave/disappears with all the money.

Author:  Kern [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 21:07 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Yes. Remember that Egypt is the only country in that region with normal relations with Israel.

Author:  MrChris [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 21:09 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Kern wrote:
Yes. Remember that Egypt is the only country in that region with normal relations with Israel.

Indeed, which is why Clinton is being so circumspect in her response to the whole thing.

Iran are going to be shovelling activists in like no one's business.

Author:  sinister agent [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 21:42 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

It's almost as though foreign people are capable of fighting for their own rights, rather than needing us to do it 'for' them, and killing hundreds of thousands of them in the process.

Author:  sinister agent [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 21:56 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Kern wrote:
I'm currently watching the BBC News feed. Fascinating times, but I'm wondering if the military will turn on the public, or if they'll give Mubarak the shove.


I'd be surprised if the army turn on the public - they seem to be very much of the same stock. Mubarak is fucked if he's lost the army. I can only assume that some heavy-duty negotiations are going on, and I can't really see how the government could do anything but capitulate in a massive way without sparking a losing battle.

Author:  Kern [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 22:27 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

sinister agent wrote:
I'd be surprised if the army turn on the public - they seem to be very much of the same stock. Mubarak is fucked if he's lost the army. I can only assume that some heavy-duty negotiations are going on, and I can't really see how the government could do anything but capitulate in a massive way without sparking a losing battle.


I think you're right. He's on his way out. Not likely to see a Egyptian Tienanmen Square here.

Author:  sinister agent [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 22:32 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Who is this guy on al jazeera right now? Young guy with a beard. I think he's New Zealandian. Very good input, including: "I think it's dangerous to call it a 'twitter revolution' or a 'facebook revolution'. It's a revolution of the people."

Author:  sinister agent [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 22:35 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Cameron finally speaks!

Author:  Kern [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 22:39 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Diplomacy in action!

Author:  Cras [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 22:40 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Still can't stop seeing 'Nipples across the world'.

Author:  Kern [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 22:42 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

There's certainly lots of tits.

Author:  Kern [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 22:44 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

sinister agent wrote:
"I think it's dangerous to call it a 'twitter revolution' or a 'facebook revolution'. It's a revolution of the people."

:this: Nicely put

I don't think I've watched Al Jazeera before but have been impressed with its coverage tonight. That young Frasier Crane was very good, yes.

Looks like the army are protecting the museum from possible looters.

Author:  sinister agent [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 22:49 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Rumours that Mubarak has fled to Switzerland. Maybe he had to use up his holidays.

Announcement on Egyptian state tv 'very soon'. Crumbs.

Author:  Kern [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 23:05 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

sinister agent wrote:
Rumours that Mubarak has fled to Switzerland. Maybe he had to use up his holidays.

The skiing's better than in Saudi

Quote:
Announcement on Egyptian state tv 'very soon'. Crumbs.


Quite.
I'm currently streaming Al-Jazeera and BBC, hopping between them. Any other good feeds?

Author:  sinister agent [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 23:09 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Same here, I'm not aware of any others coming up with much. There's a fair bit of written coverage on the usual sites, though.

Author:  NervousPete [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 23:14 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Beeb feed seems right so far, have to check out the Al Jazeera reporting though. I've read their stuff but never watched.

I reckon the current government is on the way out, probably without much bloodshed in the end. Bad things can never be ruled out though, Tianamen Square was peaceful for a couple of days before things went terrible.

Also, in the footage I'm watching, what grievence has that Egyptian guy got against TV's Trisha? He makes a gun hand and shouts her name.

Author:  sinister agent [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 23:17 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Mubarak speech covered on al jazeera live now. http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

Author:  Kern [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 23:29 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

So, he's not resigning then, but sacking his administration? Wonder how that's going to go down.

Author:  sinister agent [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 23:33 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

:!:

Holy shit. He's not stepped down, but he's telling the government to. Will this be enough? A very, very dangerous weekend ahead, I think.

Author:  NervousPete [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 23:37 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Crumbs, missed the speech, but don't look good for Mr Mubarek. Who'd want to stay in power after 30 years though? Idiot. Perhaps those Presidential breakfasts are awesome.

Paraphrased: "I welcome freedom of expression that wouldn't be allowed in Egypt without me." My nose almost sucked into my face with that snort. I can't see how he'll stay in power sacking everyone around him. I imagine the military are making deals right now.

Author:  sinister agent [ Fri Jan 28, 2011 23:50 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

The crowd outside the NDP building are looking pretty rowdy. Oddly, the footage seems to have tailed off. I think it all hinges on what the army do right now, there doesn't seem to be any other focal point for the crowd.

Edit: Unconfirmed reports that the army have kicked off in Cairo. Protestors dispersing.

Author:  MrChris [ Sat Jan 29, 2011 0:34 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

sinister agent wrote:
Cameron finally speaks!

Start at home, mother fucker.

Author:  Kern [ Sat Jan 29, 2011 10:52 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Once again, Newsround says in 150 words or so what the rolling news channels take hours to say.
The video report is clear too.

AlJazeera reporting that protestors have returned to the streets, whilst Jon Snow has tweeted that China are blocking news reports (I bet the Communist Party is shitting themselves ;) )

Author:  kalmar [ Sat Jan 29, 2011 11:36 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

I've just watched the newsround video to catch up. You're right, very clear.


And in "other news" http://news.bbc.co.uk/cbbcnews/hi/newsi ... 543622.stm

Quote:
A huge red granite head has been unearthed in the southern city of Luxor.


It's all connected man..

Author:  sinister agent [ Sat Jan 29, 2011 18:43 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

I did wonder about last night - all the live footage just stopped after Mubarak made his speech. It was really quite irritating, too - there was a report from reuters that the army had started off in Cairo, but nobody was showing or even saying what that actually meant, and what the protestors were doing. I can't imagine how the army could have shooed that many off without there being serious casualties.

That newsround link should be sent to every journalist and reporter in this country. Seriously, not a word wasted, no idiotic bullshitting and ridiculous speculation, and somehow less patronising than coverage aimed at adults.

Catching up... my MP is marching on the Embassy with the UKuncut/students/etc. lot. :luv:

Author:  sinister agent [ Sat Jan 29, 2011 19:07 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

The big men in the new cabinet are military men... curfew still in force but thousands defying it. Security services threatening crufew breakers. Reports of looters and shootings, though the military has asked the protestors to help police themselves, and they are reportedly trying to do so by forming neighbourhood watch groups.

This isn't going to go away without a battle :S

The military still seem to be popular with the crowd - it's the police doing the killing, according to reporters on the ground. I wonder what they'll do if they're ordered to attack the crowd. Eesh, those poor sods.

Author:  Kern [ Sun Jan 30, 2011 11:39 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Al-Jazeera reporting that they've been ordered to stop operations in Egypt
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middl ... 94161.html

Various reports of looting etc. BBC reporting APCs on the streets, whilst Channel 4 say they have machine guns.

Quote:
The military still seem to be popular with the crowd - it's the police doing the killing, according to reporters on the ground. I wonder what they'll do if they're ordered to attack the crowd. Eesh, those poor sods.


Aye.

I don't really have much to comment about the situation, other than moan about the indecisive response from the west. Just waiting to see how it plays out.

Author:  Mr Dom [ Sun Jan 30, 2011 15:07 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

My sister works out in Sharm, which mostly escaped the initial stuff, but as the prez is apparently staying there (in his summer 'palace'), things are heating up.. at least one person shot in Naarma bay (about a mile from my sisters flat...)

Anyway, most of the troops on the ground are conscripts/military service, and sympathise more with the people. I suspect, if this doesn't turn into a crazy dictators last stand, what will happen is:

Police/secret service bog off to neighbouring countries before they get strung up by mobs (taking their hard-extorted private stashes with them) (already happening)

Mubarak refuses to do anything except juggle the pieces. (yesterday)

Miltary step into more police role (like real police as opposed to the local bribe-hoovers they had) unofficially, keeping the police and trying to make sure noone burns down anything expensive. (probably end of today/tomorrow)

Mubarak shuffles some more cronies, noone cares, then Mubarak calls on the chiefs of staff to put down the revolution.

That's when it will go one of two ways...
If the chief of staff is any sort of realist, he will take a look at the troops he has (who will be very reluctant to open fire - they are military service conscripts, not the 'career' policemen who have the vested interest in keeping their little corrupt scheme going. Then the chief of staff will very politely ask Mubarak to step down with a shred of dignity before they point the tank guns at his palace...
Cue people cheering, new elections, same old stuff - different people in charge (although a highly suspect power grab by the muslim brotherhood is also likely, but Egyptians are a pretty secular bunch so I wouldn't expect it to go very far)


Breaking news: Army is heading into Sharm. This is BIG as they are not normally allowed anywhere near it due to treaties with Israel.

Author:  NervousPete [ Sun Jan 30, 2011 16:29 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Didn't know about the Sharm treat Mr Dom, you're right, that is significant. Al Jazeera footage shows fighter jets buzzing the crowd and a surveilance helicopter, and tanks rolling up the streets. Army is urging people to go back indoors before night falls. Al Jazeera is concerned that a 'counter revolution' may be about to be activated, as if foreign media is shut down the army will think they will be able to use force without as much in the way of damaging footage. They fear elements in the government still in control of army may be angling alongside Murabek for a show-down with the demonstrators. Would the army obey orders if - IF - it came to this?

Very tense in Cairo at the moment. Egyptian State TV is avoiding showing the crowds.

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

Author:  Wullie [ Sun Jan 30, 2011 17:07 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

:D

Image

Author:  Plissken [ Sun Jan 30, 2011 20:07 ]
Post subject:  Re: Ripples across the world

Well, you can always rely on Fox News

Image
:belm:

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