I think they're going to have to be a lot more careful than you give them credit for. They can't give the Tories the massive slaggings they've done and then be seen to do anything whatsoever to hinder Ed replacing Cameron.
Oh, they'll try to get Ed in for sure. I mean disrupt the ability of the ConLib to reform regardless of whether it's an affront to the majority of UK voters.
ElephantBanjoGnome wrote:
Oh, they'll try to get Ed in for sure. I mean disrupt the ability of the ConLib to reform regardless of whether it's an affront to the majority of UK voters.
There is very little chance that that would be an affront to the "majority" of UK voters, according to the polls
In any event, the constitution allows any group to form a government if that group can pass a vote of confidence. Remember that until relatively political parties weren't even recognised legally within the constitution - they were just a bunch of like minded people who happened to wear the same colour ties. Because under our system you're not voting for a PM or a party, you're voting for a local individual MP.
Under the Fixed-Term Parliament Act, Parliament is only dissolved early if the confidence motion fails and a second motion of confidence is not passed within 14 days. Alternatively, it can be dissolved if two-thirds of the Commons agrees. This means that Cameron could lose, Miliband win, but then lose every single vote until the 5 years are up or he self-enginneers an early election.
Whilst the doctrine has always been that 'Her Majesty's Government must be carried on', it does leave open the possibility for long-drawn out budget affairs. But from my little knowledge of the mechanics, I don't think government would completey shut down if a budget weren't passed, it just couldn't raise more money or spend on new things (could be wrong on this).
The Act could be repealed or amended in the usual way.
Whilst the doctrine has always been that 'Her Majesty's Government must be carried on', it does leave open the possibility for long-drawn out budget affairs. But from my little knowledge of the mechanics, I don't think government would completey shut down if a budget weren't passed, it just couldn't raise more money or spend on new things (could be wrong on this).
The Act could be repealed or amended in the usual way.
Alistair Campbell has an interesting piece up on his blog. I will get the link...
http://www.alastaircampbell.org/blog/20 ... r-britain/
http://www.alastaircampbell.org/blog/20 ... r-britain/
Quote:
So then, again if the polls are borne out, the question becomes ‘has Ed Miliband done enough to be in a position to be asked to try to form a government?’ And the answer to that is yes.
It is be found in the manual signed by Cameron, and agreed by Nick Clegg, paragraph 2.12, which addresses the issue of hung Parliaments. You are likely to be hearing a lot about it this evening if the exit polls confirm the opinion polls of the last few weeks.
‘Where an election does not result in an overall majority for a single party, the incumbent government remains in office unless and until the Prime Minister tenders his or her resignation and the Government’s resignation to the Sovereign. An incumbent government is entitled to wait until the new Parliament has met to see if it can command the confidence of the House of Commons, but is expected to resign if it becomes clear that it is unlikely to be able to command that confidence and there is a clear alternative.’ The clear alternative is likely to be Ed Miliband’s ability to command a Commons majority for a Queen's speech
It is be found in the manual signed by Cameron, and agreed by Nick Clegg, paragraph 2.12, which addresses the issue of hung Parliaments. You are likely to be hearing a lot about it this evening if the exit polls confirm the opinion polls of the last few weeks.
‘Where an election does not result in an overall majority for a single party, the incumbent government remains in office unless and until the Prime Minister tenders his or her resignation and the Government’s resignation to the Sovereign. An incumbent government is entitled to wait until the new Parliament has met to see if it can command the confidence of the House of Commons, but is expected to resign if it becomes clear that it is unlikely to be able to command that confidence and there is a clear alternative.’ The clear alternative is likely to be Ed Miliband’s ability to command a Commons majority for a Queen's speech
Kern wrote:
Under the Fixed-Term Parliament Act, Parliament is only dissolved early if the confidence motion fails and a second motion of confidence is not passed within 14 days. Alternatively, it can be dissolved if two-thirds of the Commons agrees. This means that Cameron could lose, Miliband win, but then lose every single vote until the 5 years are up or he self-enginneers an early election.
Well quite, I think that was what I'd described up there. Cameron hangs around, loses a vote of confidence, then has to pass another one within 14 days or it's general election time.
Quote:
Whilst the doctrine has always been that 'Her Majesty's Government must be carried on', it does leave open the possibility for long-drawn out budget affairs. But from my little knowledge of the mechanics, I don't think government would completey shut down if a budget weren't passed, it just couldn't raise more money or spend on new things (could be wrong on this).
There are some things that carry on I think, but the Budget itself needs to be voted through.
Quote:
The Act could be repealed or amended in the usual way.
Which is unlikely, to be fair, as it would require a majority.
The stupidity of some people at work is mind blowing.
There's one person who is a single mum who has been heavily reliant on benefits in the past, and has been a big user of the NHS's services.
She's having a huge rant about how dire Labour are, and how Awesome the conservatives are, and it seems to be mostly based on the fact that Ed Milliband looks a bit like Wallace and her nephew met David Cameron in Afghanistan and thought he was friendly.
I did consider trying to point out that Labour's policies and track record are much more in her favour than the Conservatives, but thought better of it.
There's one person who is a single mum who has been heavily reliant on benefits in the past, and has been a big user of the NHS's services.
She's having a huge rant about how dire Labour are, and how Awesome the conservatives are, and it seems to be mostly based on the fact that Ed Milliband looks a bit like Wallace and her nephew met David Cameron in Afghanistan and thought he was friendly.
I did consider trying to point out that Labour's policies and track record are much more in her favour than the Conservatives, but thought better of it.
I suppose we've never seen the effect of Fixed term parliaments act apply in this scenario, but although Finance Acts are debated (with the exception of FA 2015, the ludicrous cunts) and are potentially subject to challenge - and this does happen at select committee stage - Provisional Collection of Taxes Act is always waved through by submission from the Committee of Ways and Means at the end of the Budget statement, prior even to the opposition comments. PCTA68
Its PCTA that prevents government shutdown by providing either a rollover of the previous year rates of taxes or substitution for those just announced. An opposition that wants a rate increased (or blocking a reduction) is unlikely to block PCTA as that would in effect scrap the tax for the following year. I think that PCTA has to be replaced by a finance bill within 4 months, or something.
I'm not aware of any (real) challenge to PCTA in history but could change I guess.
Its PCTA that prevents government shutdown by providing either a rollover of the previous year rates of taxes or substitution for those just announced. An opposition that wants a rate increased (or blocking a reduction) is unlikely to block PCTA as that would in effect scrap the tax for the following year. I think that PCTA has to be replaced by a finance bill within 4 months, or something.
I'm not aware of any (real) challenge to PCTA in history but could change I guess.
Quote:
The stupidity of some people at work is mind blowing.
There's one person who is a single mum who has been heavily reliant on benefits in the past, and has been a big user of the NHS's services.
She's having a huge rant about how dire Labour are, and how Awesome the conservatives are, and it seems to be mostly based on the fact that Ed Milliband looks a bit like Wallace and her nephew met David Cameron in Afghanistan and thought he was friendly.
I did consider trying to point out that Labour's policies and track record are much more in her favour than the Conservatives, but thought better of it
There's one person who is a single mum who has been heavily reliant on benefits in the past, and has been a big user of the NHS's services.
She's having a huge rant about how dire Labour are, and how Awesome the conservatives are, and it seems to be mostly based on the fact that Ed Milliband looks a bit like Wallace and her nephew met David Cameron in Afghanistan and thought he was friendly.
I did consider trying to point out that Labour's policies and track record are much more in her favour than the Conservatives, but thought better of it
My wife asked me last night who she should vote for!
Told her she had a choice of the main 3 really and explained a little bit about them, also told her not to vote UKIP or Green Party
For the UKIP it should be obvious why not, but the Green was down to me reading a leaflet that came through the door the other night. The Policies were rubbish and the candidate had listed his job as a story teller at the local arts centre!
Conservative will win regardless in my area (Bracknell) its a very safe seat for them, never understood why as Bracknell is a big working class town, but also covers a lot of very wealthy areas as well. The last MP we had before this one was the biggest expense fiddler in parliament managed to avoid jail though but stood down.
asfish wrote:
For the UKIP it should be obvious why not, but the Green was down to me reading a leaflet that came through the door the other night. The Policies were rubbish and the candidate had listed his job as a story teller at the local arts centre!
My Green candidate is Spoz the poet.
I actually agree with quite a few of their policies, though do strongly disagree with some of the others, but if they want to get more MPs then they need to have more credible candidates. It's possible for someone to be passionate about environmental issues without looking like a children's TV presenter.
Dr Zoidberg wrote:
a children's TV presenter.
I went to school with Mr Bloom. This has annoyed me.
That Mr Bloom always looks out of place, like he should be selling E's in a crappy nightclub instead.
I always thought Mr Bloom had a bit of a resemblence to a certain northerner of these parts...
Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
That's from this analysis of the UK's austerity programme: http://benjaminstudebaker.com/2015/05/0 ... d-cameron/
Haven't read it yet, but for the curious, there's a followup post from the same author addressing various counterarguments to the original: http://benjaminstudebaker.com/2015/05/0 ... arguments/
Edit -- huh, Thatcher spent as much as the 2007-2010 Labour party, as a proportion of GDP:
I guess the Falklands and Iraq wars made some impact onto spending, too. That might account for the spike in 82, but the Iraq War started in 2003, and there's not much of a jump there.
Falklands cost £2.8bn according to Wikipedia quoting Lawrence Freedman. GDP at the time was around £280bn per year (not inflation adjusted) so the Falklands is approximately 1/4 of the 4% swing seen there.
Heh, I just realised:
The £1.3bn to replace stuff would have gone to the civil service and private contractors, of course. War as Keynesian stimulus! :0
Heh, I just realised:
Quote:
The campaign itself, Operation Corporate, is now estimated to have cost about £1.5 billion. The cost of replacing lost equipment is put at £1,278 million. The largest single item in this figure is £641 million for four new Type 22 frigates... to replace Sir Galahad is put at £69 million, and new aircraft account for another £116 million.
The £1.3bn to replace stuff would have gone to the civil service and private contractors, of course. War as Keynesian stimulus! :0
Doctor Glyndwr wrote:
Bobbyaro wrote:
While I don't dispute this, I can't, I am not an economist, how relevant is it to compare to the US? How linked are the factors that allow growth in terms of the EU, their control of the Euro and the rest of Europe's general collapse into which we sell a lot?
The article covers this; the US was almost as exposed to the financial sector, and hence to the after effects of the meltdown. Nor is the EU a factor in why our growth lags behind the US. Across Europe, our growth is a long way behind France and Germany. Germany has experienced growth as good as the US's in the face of significant concerns about the Euro. The UK is even fractionally behind Spain, and Spain has 20% unemployment:
Quote:
I don't know the answers to these questions, but I don't think you can claim austerity as fruitless because everything is connected, then not connect the other aspects of the factors which may/may not lead to economic growth.
I'm not, but the article I linked to -- from which I extracted merely a taster -- does cover this in some detail.Meh, can't resist a quick punt on this.
I'd make the following quick observations:
1. That graph only encompasses the period Jan 2008 - Jan 2012, so only the last year or so was actually as under the ConLib period, most of it relates to Labour.
2. Contrary to your notes, the graph clearly shows that the UK economy fell harder (magnitude) and faster than any of the others, most notably the US (approx. 2.5% less contraction, slightly shallower and much less prolonged decline). So in fact, the UK economy was the worst affected in terms of initial hit, as the graph clearly shows.
3. It can hardly be expected that any policies implemented by the ConLib government would've had an immediate effect; there is clearly inertia within the economy, likely to be at least 12 months at minimum. So basically, only the last 6 months' time-history of the entire graph is likely to be relevant to any criticism of the ConLib govt, the rest will be down to Labour?
So really, Doc, according to any sensible, dispassionate and objective analysis of your own data, I really don't think this is telling us what you think it is telling us?
I'd also mention, of course, that we know very shortly after the point this graph is truncated, things rapidly improved for the UK to the extent that we were the fastest growing western economy in 2014, whereas the Eurozone in particular has tanked. So again, very much at odds with your narrative, I'd have to say.
To be entirely fair, though, I will state that it's at least inferred that the initial austerity-max Conservative measures don't look to have been effective short term at least, and perhaps the more austerity-lite Vince Cable influenced approach subsequently yielded better performance? That all seems just fine and dandy to a wet, liberal, pale-blue Tory such as myself
Voteted!
Me too. 7:15 was probably a peak time but it was the busiest I can remember. An actual proper queue!
Yep. Was the busiest I've ever seen a polling station too.
Voted 8am, was the only person there...
Channel 4 is my coverage of choice, quite amusing so far.
The queue is unbelievable hete to vote
Trooper wrote:
Channel 4 is my coverage of choice, quite amusing so far.
Paxman doesnt do autocue well. His writers are ok though.
He doesn't do comedy very well either.
The "we can't talk about politics until 10pm" joke is wearing a bit thin 18 minutes in, mind
The "we can't talk about politics until 10pm" joke is wearing a bit thin 18 minutes in, mind
Mr Kissyfur wrote:
He doesn't do comedy very well either.
The "we can't talk about politics until 10pm" joke is wearing a bit thin 18 minutes in, mind
The "we can't talk about politics until 10pm" joke is wearing a bit thin 18 minutes in, mind
Actually I think its a ruse to force people to go and vote, between the subliminal messages.
E4's still switched off, isn't it?
Mr Kissyfur wrote:
E4's still switched off, isn't it?
No. I looked. Neither is E4+1.
I know the newspapers are biased, but this seems a bit desperate (and possibly dodgy ?) from The Telegraph.....
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/m ... ron-labour
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/m ... ron-labour
If you're signed up to any form of telegraph email list, you're statistically unlikely to be all that offended.
"Our owners desperately want to keep their non-dom, tax dodging status quo, and the only party that is brave enough to deliver that is the Tory party"
I love Cathy burke
She's got a lot of spots on her wattle. I'm finding it distracting.
The australian guy is very good. Never seen him on anything before.
The australian guy is very good. Never seen him on anything before.
Mr Kissyfur wrote:
She's got a lot of spots on her wattle. I'm finding it distracting.
The australian guy is very good. Never seen him on anything before.
The australian guy is very good. Never seen him on anything before.
The? What? Now?
Australian guy. Man from the former colony in the southern hemisphere.
Mr Kissyfur wrote:
Australian guy. Man from the former colony in the southern hemisphere.
Mr Kissyfur expresses surprise at previous non-awareness of weekly TV comedy show on commercial television shocker.
Why do we encourage everyone to vote? Most people are dicks.
I got the boy to draw my X. Apparently that's illegal.
Hopefully they'll arrest the high maintenance cancerous cunt.
Hopefully they'll arrest the high maintenance cancerous cunt.
ApplePieOfDestiny wrote:
Mr Kissyfur wrote:
Australian guy. Man from the former colony in the southern hemisphere.
Mr Kissyfur expresses surprise at previous non-awareness of weekly TV comedy show on commercial television shocker.
Mr Kissyfur wrote:
ApplePieOfDestiny wrote:
Mr Kissyfur wrote:
Australian guy. Man from the former colony in the southern hemisphere.
Mr Kissyfur expresses surprise at previous non-awareness of weekly TV comedy show on commercial television shocker.
Mr Kissyfur fucks up quote tags shocker
Now that's definitely not a surprise.
Mr Kissyfur wrote:
ApplePieOfDestiny wrote:
Mr Kissyfur wrote:
Australian guy. Man from the former colony in the southern hemisphere.
Mr Kissyfur expresses surprise at previous non-awareness of weekly TV comedy show on commercial television shocker.
He has been on for 3+ years
Grim... wrote:
Why do we encourage everyone to vote? Most people are dicks.
I was just saying this earlier.
Whoa.
ApplePieOfDestiny wrote:
Whoa.
Whoa.
Exit polls are suggesting Tories might have had a fair few more seats than the pre-election polls were suggesting, then?
Con 316
Lab 239
SNP 58
LD 10 (TEN?!?!?!?)
UKIP 2
That can't be right. Just can't.
Con 316
Lab 239
SNP 58
LD 10 (TEN?!?!?!?)
UKIP 2
That can't be right. Just can't.